The Big Picture

July was a bumper month for news that affected stock markets. The Greece debt crisis dominated the first half of the month. Greece started July by going into arrears on a $1.7bn loan to the IMF. But having the Finance Minister resign and immediately hop onto his motorbike wearing a leather jacket and a matt black helmet with a pretty blonde sans helmet on the pillion seemed to be the tops – but then the replacement Finance Minister (also a Marxist and former academic) was so relaxed he didn’t bother to take written comments to the big Brussels meeting as he was requested to do – the dog apparently ate his homework and he asked for an extension. He got more than what he bargained for.

As a result, Greece finished up with a far worse deal than they voted against in June. But for the rest of us the Greece issue has probably gone away for quite some time. As we always thought, there would be no long-run fall-out on us – and, as it turned out – there wasn’t that much short-term volatility either.

In an unrelated crisis, the mainland China stock exchange seemingly went into meltdown. Unlike our market that is dominated by big fund managers making big calls, the so-called Shanghai Composite Index is dominated by “mum and dad” investors that border on having a gambling mentality – people that the China government was encouraging to borrow to get into the market. When the index fell by around one third in a couple of weeks in June-July it seemed bad until one realised that the index had gone up by about 150% in the previous 12-months.

The China Government stepped in and rapidly brought back order into the market. The index gained over 10% in a few days – another problem solved, but some volatility remains in that market!

Because iron ore was apparently being used for collateral on the China market, its price also took a nose-dive from just under $60 / tonne to a 10-year low of $44.59 before finishing the month at over $55.

Iran has almost struck a deal with six major powers to maintain its nuclear power programme without the weapons part. If, or is that when, the US Congress ratifies the deal, trade sanctions should be lifted and more oil will flow into an already over-crowded market. Oil prices are unlikely to rise anytime soon.

But there was also lots of good news. The UK got its best result since 2001 on household disposable income growth – after taking inflation into account.

US employment data and economic growth data were good without being great and our employment data points to last October (2014) as having been the peak for our unemployment. Every month since has marked a slight decrease. And the Governor of the Reserve Bank recently joined the chorus that unemployment may have peaked.

Nevertheless, our official interest rate looks set to fall at least once more this year. The cost – measured in terms of risk – is so small for another cut compared to a no-change or rate-hike decision, it’s almost a win-win for us (unless you are on a pension in cash).

And our Reserve Bank Governor has come out and said perhaps we should accept that trend economic growth going forward will be lower than what we were once used to.

Whatever the pundits might be saying, we still see new record highs on Wall Street in the remainder of the year and the ASX 200 breaching 6,000 sometime soon. In the meantime, there is a more likely chance of some sideways movement until all of the jangled nerves have settled down and our August reporting season to the ASX has been digested.

Asset Classes

Regional Analysis

*Ron Bewley(PhD,FASSA)– Director, Woodhall Investment Research

Important information

This information is general information only. You should consider the appropriateness of this information with regards to your objectives, financial situation and needs. Infocus Securities Australia Pty Ltd ABN 47 097 797 049 AFSL and Australian Credit Licence No. 236523 trading as Infocus Wealth Management.

The Big Picture

The NAB business confidence survey came in at the best since August 2014, and the previous month, the Westpac consumer confidence index was the best since February 2014. On top of that, the Household Savings ratio is at last coming down to more reasonable levels reinforcing the confidence story. Don’t worry – we are still saving well but not hoarding in fear as we were.

On top of that, the official trend unemployment rate series for Australia – the preferred official index – peaked at 6.17% in December 2014 and has gradually improved each month since – to sneak to just under 6.0% for May!

Our GDP growth came in at 0.9% for Q1, 2015 and the number of jobs created again easily beat forecasts. The Reserve Bank kept rates on hold and the government got the pensions bill through parliament with the support of the Greens – within hours of Labor stating it would oppose it. At last our economy is starting to get going again.

China cut its official interest rate for the fourth time since November 2014 and removed its import duty on luxury goods. The main measure of manufacturing activity – the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) – remains above 50 which indicates a slight rate of expansion.

Japan threw in a big revision to Q1 GDP growth – up from 2.4% to 3.9% on an annual basis. The UK delivered growth in pay of 2.7% on the year and ???0.1% on inflation – so people’s wages are better off (before tax) by 2.8% on the year.

The US posted a big +1.2% increase for the month on Retail Sales but some other data were a bit mixed. The June date for the US Fed to hike rates for the first time since the GFC came and went with no action – that’s not what most expected last year.

Indeed Fed rate official forecasts for the end of 2016 and 2017 have fallen to 1.75% and 2.75%, respectively. In other words, when rates do start to rise they are expected to do so very slowly. Some commentators think the first hike will be in September – and some even expect two hikes this year. But as the Fed keeps reminding us, the data must be strong enough first. We maintain that we expect that the first hike is more likely to happen next year. But that’s not bad. Indeed, it would reflect prudent policy if the data turn out to be not strong enough.

Even Europe gets some plaudits. There was a release of some bumper PMIs for some European countries in late June. But of course there is Greece!

It is exhausting following the Greek crisis. They have a Finance Minister (who held a position in Marxist Economics in university) negotiating – or rather not negotiating – with the IMF and various European governments and policy centres.

Europe and Greece both want Greece to stay in Europe but the price of membership is that Greece must agree to get its house in order. Portugal, Ireland and Spain all started in a similar position in 2010 but those so-called ‘PIGS’ countries took their medicine and successfully exited the bailout program last year.

Without being too harsh, the conditions needed to get the next bailout required Greece to accept the sort of conditions that most of us in the Developed World – such as Australia – live in. Don’t avoid your taxes; lift the retirement age up to 65; pay GST in the Greek islands as well as the mainland, etc. And their top marginal tax rate is well less than ours! I suspect that whatever happens will have almost no long-run impact on our economy and markets.

Asset Classes

Australian Equities

The ASX 200 had a shocking month (down ???5.5%) and no sector was spared. Of course the sell-off at the end of June over the Greek situation exacerbated the situation but May and June together have taken us down from nearly 6,000 momentarily to under 5,400 – a 10% correction!

We see this dip as short-term volatility. The financial year starting today is likely to be really good. Our forecast for next June 30th is 6,200 – so that’s up 14% in 2015/16! On top of that we can expect about a 4.7% dividends plus franking credits.

The year 2014/15 that just finished was nearly flat at +1.2% but the returns including dividends were +5.7% which was a lot better than cash – and franking credits would take that return to about 7%.

And different sectors performed very differently over the financial year. Health was up +29.2% and Telecommunications was close by at +25.8% – both including dividends. At the other end of the spectrum, the Energy sector lost ???20.2% on the back of the falling oil prices.

Although we have the market very underpriced, high volatility might continue for a few months due to Greece and the US Fed deliberations.

Foreign Equities

Wall Street outperformed our market over June (???2.1% against our ???5.5%) but London’s FTSE (???6.6%) was even worse than the ASX 200.

While most markets have had big sell-offs in recent weeks, the S&P 500 is only ???3.2% off its all-time high.

Bonds

The bond markets are currently more volatile because of the Greek crisis and the talk from the US Fed about starting to make its first move in raising rates.

What is surprising is that the Fitch (a major rating agency like S&P or Moody’s) estimated one-year probability of default is only 1.02% for Western Europe. It started 2015 at 1.43% and reached as high as 4% during the GFC. Markets aren’t really that worried about Greece.

Interest Rates

Neither the Fed nor the Reserve Bank made any move on rates in June.  The Fed stressed that when it starts raising rates, it will be at a snail’s pace. Of course increasing the rate from 0% to 0.25% should have no impact on doing business but markets like to react to things that move – particularly when they are just coming out of hibernation!

There is no real consensus about whether we will get any more cuts at home this year, but any hike is a very long way off. There is a reasonable chance of another cut in a few months but it isn’t anything to bank on. A lot will depend on unemployment and inflation data over coming months.

Consumer and business confidence indexes are starting to look very good. Perhaps a rate cut would boost confidence even further. But nobody should be investing in a new business that critically depends upon one more cut. On the other hand, it will be interesting to see what the impact of the small business package from the May budget is.

Other Assets

Iron ore prices moved largely sideways in June but dipped below $60 / tonne for the first time in five weeks today.

Brent oil prices were relatively unchanged over the month, but they did dip a little at one point.

Perhaps surprisingly, the price of gold has been stable in the face the Greek crisis. It was actually down ???$US11 on the month.

Regional Analysis

China

China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing came in today at 50.2 for the second month in a row. A number above 50 signals growing economic growth.

Like Greece, the China story will not go away for a very long time. The media feeds on stories and if there is no big news around it needs to find some. India is currently growing a little faster than China’s 7% target. And with ‘small’ China cities having more than 10 million citizens, there has to be a story to be found.

The PBOC (People’s Bank of China) just cut its main interest rate by 0.25% and its reserve ratio (the amount banks hold against loans) by 0.5%. China also removed import taxes from luxury goods. China is managing its economic destiny very well indeed.

Any prudent government changes tax rules and interest rates to glide an economy to where it needs. Think of Australia and what we are discussing about budgets and rates at the moment. China is no different. They are not panicking with massive or even big tweaks to policy. These changes would also look normal in Australia in recent times.

Yes, the first big wave of investment in China has ended, but much of China is still rural and poor. There will be more bursts of investment cycles to follow – after China has digested the impact of this last wave.

U.S.A.

After a very poor jobs number for March (+85,000 new jobs) the April data were quite strong with +223,000 jobs created and a 5.4% unemployment rate. The May number released at the start of June came in at a bumper +280,000 but unemployment slipped one tick to 5.5%. Only 225,000 new jobs were expected.

But the Fed is not happy with these numbers. The new jobs are still predominantly lower paying ones. Such employees typically spend all of their income on basics. They need wages growth to spread the gains across the economy.

The ???0.7% Q1 GDP growth figure (due to bad weather) was revised up to ???0.2% (both annualised) but everyone expected that. The US is sadly lacking productivity gains like so many other countries.

Europe

Europe ex-Greece is starting to do well – and in some places very well. Think back to 2010 when it looked like the eurozone might break up! That problem has gone away. Think of the start of 2014 when some talked of a recession in Germany. That problem too has gone.

Many mid-month preliminary PMIs were strong across Europe. Even Spain – with its 20%+ unemployment posted a number in the mid-fifties. Unemployment typically lags behind business expectations.

The Europe statistics are starting to look pretty damn good – even if you don’t include the UK. The UK growth in the first quarter of 2015 was just revised up to 2.9% over the year. Real (adjusted for inflation) household income was up a massive +4.9% in the quarter, and interest rates increase’s there are starting to be talked about.

Since midnight on June 30 has passed and Greece did not make its payment to the IMF, the bailout programme has officially ended. The referendum on Sunday is apparently worded as requesting a vote on continuing the bailout package – which no longer exists. Do they have the time to print new ballot papers and ship them out to the islands?

Sadly there is now talk of humanitarian aid being needed for Greece. Drug companies are owed more than a billion dollar’s but they have said they will continue to send drugs to Greece for now.

Rest of World Europe

Just when we thought Greece was enough of a handful, Puerto Rico announced at the end of June it had no chance of repaying its $72 billion debt. No doubt the US – with its very close ties – will bail them out. After all, you wouldn’t notice an extra $72 billion added to the $4.5 trillion US government debt!

The Iran nuclear talks are important. Depending on how they go, oil prices could move strongly either way on supply issues. Flip a coin.

*Ron Bewley(PhD,FASSA)– Director, Woodhall Investment Research

Important information

This information is general information only. You should consider the appropriateness of this information with regards to your objectives, financial situation and needs. Infocus Securities Australia Pty Ltd ABN 47 097 797 049 AFSL and Australian Credit Licence No. 236523 trading as Infocus Wealth Management.

By Ron Bewley*. Brought to you by Infocus

The Big Picture

On May 12th we got the Budget we ‘had to have’. While the previous Budget was a big step in the right direction – to set Australia on course for a stable future – it was so unpopular that the Government had to soften its stance this time around. Of course people will always be able to find something to gripe about because it is simply not possible to make everyone better off in a budget. Budgets redistribute wealth and income.

The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Consumer Confidence index jumped up a big +6.4% after this Budget. Normally this index falls after a budget. This latest number took confidence back up to above where it was even before the 2014 Budget!

Also, the Government came back in polling – level-pegging with Labor in the latest read. The main focus in the latest Budget was Small Business – with tax reductions and accelerated depreciations. As so many, many people are involved in small business, it is no surprise that the economy will get some sort of a lift – it is just a question of how much.

It was Peter Martin’s turn to be the ‘favoured journalist of the month’ to pre-empt the RBA cut in its rate from 2.25% to 2.00% on May 5th. While a cut – such as that made in February – would normally be expected to give economic indicators a boost, the fact that the RBA removed its ‘easing bias’ statement from it accompanying notes failed to excite pundits. Indeed, the Bank also cut its economic (GDP) growth forecast by  0.5% to the range 2% – 3% for 2015/16. The Treasury forecast is a fraction more optimistic. However, the Bank would (or is that should?) not have known what was in the Budget when it reduced its growth forecast.

The latest Budget is meant to be ‘all about jobs’ rather than the ‘debt and deficit repair’ of last year. The latest estimate is that the Budget will return to surplus by 2019/20 but, of course, debt is accumulating in the interim.

Both the Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s ratings agencies confirmed their AAA credit ratings for Australian debt after the Budget.

The official Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) trend estimate of unemployment for April – published in May – actually fell from 6.2% to 6.1%. Only  2,900 jobs were lost over the month. But the full-time jobs’ fall was  21,900 – with part-time hires negating much of that that loss.

And there were some bright signs from overseas. China’s trade data was poor but China cut its lending rate for the third time this year and announced an additional $300bn spending on new projects. It’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing improved slightly over the month.

The ECB  (European  Central Bank) is set to lift its rate of stimulus in Europe for the next two months; Greece seems to be coming to some sort of agreement with its creditors but nobody can really keep up with the dialogue; and the EU (European Union) growth is forecast to be a modest +1.6% for the year. Fitch’s credit rating for Europe has improved further on this round of Greece negotiations.

The US Federal Reserve caused a little concern with its announcements on when it will start to raise rates. However, Chair Janet Yellen stated clearly that it could be years before the Fed Funds Rate gets back to ‘normalised’ levels.

Asset Classes

Australian Equities

The ASX 200 finished flat over the month but Industrial stocks surged +5.5%. Consumer Staples (e.g. Woolworths) and Financials (e.g. the big banks) went sharply backwards.

In my opinion, the four high yield sectors went into a bubble after the February rate cut which was then burst by the lack of guidance about future cuts in the May RBA statement. These sectors are just back to where they were in January.

On the 1st July 2014, we were predicting this financial year to end at 5,900 on this coming June 30th. Stock markets are inherently volatile but the recent rally from a low of 5,610 keeps 5,900 on the radar. We think 6,300 is on the cards for mid-2016.

Foreign Equities

Wall Street keeps surging to new levels but largely in a sideways fashion. Most major markets were pretty flat in May. Emerging markets slipped a couple of percent.

There seems to have been no repeat of the ‘taper tantrums’ of 2013 as the US Fed is about to hike rates. Bond markets have been a bit volatile but equities seem to be strong.

Bonds

The Fed’s comments certainly put some volatility into bond markets around the world. But there hasn’t been much of a flow-on to equities. Our 10 year yield is firmly below 3% so – after tax and inflation – most such bond owners are going backwards.

Interest Rates

The RBA cut its rate to 2.00% in May. The market is divided over whether there will be any more cuts. We suspect there will be one more cut in a few months unless the Budget really sets the economy alight.

The US Fed has all but given up on a June rate hike for fear of going too soon. The first quarter was so bad in the US economy – largely because of weather and the dock strikes on the West Coast. The initial growth estimate for Q1 was only +0.2% and many were expecting that estimate to be revised downwards in subsequent months – and the  0.7% first revision confirmed that view. US Jobs data did jump back after a terrible March figure.

Other Assets

Iron ore prices recovered from their end-of-April slip to gain nearly 10% on the month. Brent oil prices have been relatively stable at above $60 / barrel.

Regional Analysis

Australia

It was not only the Westpac Consumer Confidence index that jumped up after the Budget, the average of the three post-budget ANZ – Roy Morgan indexes was also quite strong.

Retail Sales – measured before the Budget – came in at +0.3% which was fractionally down on the expected +0.4%.

But the big problem in forecasting the Australian economy at the moment is so much of the 2014 Budget has not yet passed through Parliament – and what from this Budget will pass?

It did look a bit like an election budget so there is a realistic chance Tony Abbott will use some bill not passing through the Senate to call a double dissolution before the 2016 Budget.

If Australia follows the UK’s lead in voting in a party that has the mechanism to truly lead, it might be a simple matter to get the economy ticking along quite nicely.

At the end of May, the CAPEX (Capital Expenditure) data for business forecasts was released. Expected 2015/16 expenditure is  24% down on that in the current financial year. Markets didn’t like that but, as we switch from heavy industry to clever industry, we probably don’t need quite as much CAPEX to support the same job growth.

But on Tuesday 2nd June we get the next RBA rate decision, followed by GDP growth on Wednesday 3rd. A rate change is highly unlikely and a soft GDP read looks likely on the cards.

China

China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing came in today at 50.2 – a fraction up from the 50.1 in the previous month – but slightly down on expectations. A number above 50 signals growing economic growth.

China’s reaction to some weaker economic data with both a monetary and a fiscal injection proves they are serious about managing to hold on to a respectable growth target of 7% p.a. for 2015.

It is a little disturbing that China is building some man-made islands in the South China Sea – in the vicinity of the islands disputed with Japan and others for sovereignty over the last few years. It is more disturbing to read that China plans to place military infrastructure on these islands! And there is an awful lot of oil and gas in the neighbourhood. This news is starting to read like a James Bond movie script!

U.S.A.

The particularly poor US nonfarm payrolls (jobs increase) figure reported at the start of April of +126,000 jobs for March, was revised downwards to +85,000 – a truly miserable number.

However, the latest data were quite strong with +223,000 jobs and a 5.4% unemployment rate. Even average wage growth at +2.2% over the year was promising. This coming Friday’s numbers will tell the real tale. Was the March read just a blip that can be written off?

The preliminary GDP growth for Q1 was +0.2% and that was revised over the weekend down to  0.7% (but this was widely expected). Most serious analysts are predicting a much stronger second half for 2015 (around 2% for Q2 and 3% for Q3) but the Fed won’t want to pre-empt that with a rate hike just in case.

Europe

Greece is sailing close to the wind in regard to its debt repayments but the end of May witnessed some optimism regarding the negotiations. But whichever way it goes, people are so over Greece that the outcome doesn’t really matter anymore – unless you happen to live in Greece.

David Cameron’s UK Conservative Party was elected with a majority meaning that it does not need support from a coalition nor cross benchers to go forward for the next five years. And with a House of Lords rather than an elected Senate, Cameron will have no excuses if he fails to deliver. The UK is facing deflation – albeit only a  0.1% fall in the CPI for Q1 – for the first time since 1960!

Rest of World

Japan’s economic growth was a little better than expected. But the big news in the rest of the world is the magnitude of the alleged corruption in awarding various countries the right to host the football (soccer) World Cup. Everyone smelt a rat when Qatar won a bid to host the 2022 Cup in temperatures of over 40C but even the long-gone South Africa bid seems to be getting embroiled in the investigation.

It seems Qatar has already spent $200bn on the Cup preparations – or 10 times the amount Russia has spent on the 2018 Cup. Qatar will have serious egg on face if it gets the Cup taken away from it.

Recall England got bundled out of the 2018 bid with only two votes. Australia didn’t fare much better for the 2022 bid – and both countries spent a lot of money on their bids – and lost big time from the benefits flowing from any successful bid.

*Ron Bewley(PhD,FASSA)– Director, Woodhall Investment Research

**Australian Bureau of Statistics

*Ron Bewley(PhD,FASSA)– Director, Woodhall Investment Research

Important information

This information is the opinion of Infocus Securities Australia Pty Ltd ABN 47 097 797 049 AFSL and Australian Credit Licence No. 236523 trading as Infocus Wealth Management and may contain general advice that does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any person. Before making an investment decision, readers need to consider whether this information is appropriate to their circumstances.

The Big Picture

Asset Classes

Australian Equities

January was a bumpy month, but it finished strongly – up +3.3% on the month. Stocks reliant on oil and iron prices were hit hard but some stocks reached all-time highs – such as CBA. We see the ASX 200 reaching 5,850 by the end of 2015 with a possible high of 6,200 during the year. The index currently stands at 5,588.

We have our index modestly overpriced by +1.2% in the short-run but our long-run view is that we are about  5% underpriced.

Trading is usually light in January because of the summer holiday season. As a result, volatility can often be elevated and it was. But volume came in big and strong in the last week reinforcing the market strength.

The fall in the $A is thought to benefit many exporting companies. Lower oil prices could help companies outside of the resources sector. But, at this point, our broker-based forecasts point to an ‘average’ year of about 6% capital gains plus 5% dividends and maybe 1.5% franking credits. The total expected return is strong but the headline number for the ASX 200 might not please as much as some would like.

The keys will be revealed in the February reporting season as companies map out their expected futures. Since it takes some time for currency and commodity price effects to ‘pass through’, any real benefits may not become obvious until the August reporting season.

Telstra has been a stand-out performer. Its dividend yield has fallen below 5% but there has been much commentary that Telstra is also becoming a growth stock – based on new technologies and a highly skilled management team. Interestingly, the fall in the BHP stock price is almost lifting it into a yield play with an expected dividend of 4.4%!

Foreign Equities

Wall Street had a poor month with the S&P 500 falling  3.1% while the London FTSE climbed +2.8% in line with the ASX 200. The German DAX rocketed up by +9.1%. The story that played out was heavily influenced by the ECB decision to start stimulus.

Reporting season in the US is not going as well as many had expected or hoped for. Many say it is not the strength of the greenback but a failure of companies to grow their businesses that caused the fall in equities.

Bonds

With the ECB starting its 1.1 trillion euro QE programme in March, bond yields in many countries are particularly low. The US 10 year Treasury Note is yielding about 1.7%.

Our 10 year government bond yield is just over 2.5% and above those of Spain and Italy. It was only a few years ago that the so-called ‘PIGS’ countries, that include Spain and Italy, had yields of around three times more than now.

Interest Rates

The volume of chatter on whether the RBA will cut rates at their February 3rd meeting was increasing until the inflation data came out at the end of January. ‘Headline’ inflation did come in low for the quarter at +0.2% but that was heavily influenced by oil prices.

The RBA’s preferred ‘underlying’ inflation read that trims out some items like oil, came in at +0.7% – an unexpectedly high read.

But on January 28th, a journalist predicted a cut the week after and that had a major impact on market expectations. Using market pricing, the chance of a cut went from about 40% to about 65% in one day!

Given the conservative nature of the RBA, we think it seems unlikely it will move without warning – but, of course, no one can ever completely rule out a cut or a hike. Moreover, the labour market looks to be improving without a cut.

We believe it is quite possible that rates will be on hold all year but a 0.25% change either way would not greatly affect most Australians. Our call remains that the next move could be up – but in 2016.

The statement from the Fed pushed out market expectations for a hike in the US from June to around September. Again, we think no change this year is the more likely outcome. If the US does hike, it would probably only make a small increase to say 0.25% or 0.5% and leave that rate on hold for quite some time. Having a 0% – 0.25% rate isn’t a good look for the biggest economy in the world.

The main reason why we are not expecting a hike any time soon is that the US did raise rates too soon in 1938 sending the economy back into recession. The US economy is strong but not massively so.

Other Assets

Iron ore prices continue to be depressed and volatile. Recent data shows that Australia gained a big market share in ore against countries other than Brazil for sea-born imports into China. Since this was apparently a desired outcome, further falls in price from increasing supply might slow down.

Oil prices (Brent) fell another -3.2% in January but it would have been much worse had they not risen +12.5% in the last week! WTI oil was down  9.7% on the month. OPEC is predicting a rebound in prices in 2016. Gold prices took a turn for the better in January climbing +7.3% on the month.

Regional Analysis

Taken out of context, our recent, strong labour market data and moderately high inflation reported in January would be what one might expect from a robust economy. But it doesn’t feel like that, does it? As the squabbling continues in Cabinet, it looks more like Australians are weighed down from a lack of leadership rather than economic reality.

After the so-called labour market data issue in mid-2014, we now have an unemployment rate that has improved in steps from a high of 6.3% to 6.1% for the latest read.

Employment data was also strong with +41,600 new jobs created in December, with more people joining the workforce in search of employment.

Although the RBA focuses on the underlying rate of inflation – which came in at +0.7% – in setting interest rates, the inflation read we all face is the headline rate of +0.2%. With another fall in oil prices that came in since the inflation rate was calculated, consumers are in for more good times at the bowser – for now.

China

China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing came in on the 1st February at 49.8, down from the previous month which was 50.1. China exports and imports both beat expectations.

Importantly, Premier Li gave an address at the Davos World Economic Forum assuring us that China will not have a hard landing. The PMI and trade data are consistent with Li’s view.

Imports of iron ore climbed as a market share from Australia, but took a nose dive from the rest of the world (ex Australia and Brazil). The BHP-RIO-Vale ‘squeeze out the expensive producers’ policy has worked by increasing supply to force down price.

U.S.A.

The US had another strong month with employment data. There were +252,000 new jobs added and unemployment fell to 5.6% but wage growth was again negative.

The US also had their best read on consumer confidence in 7 years. Not all data are great but this isn’t a country that is falling over. GDP growth did miss estimates at +2.6% (annualised) for Q4 compared to the revised +5.0% for Q3. However, growth figures go through two revisions before the next number drops and recently those revisions have largely been up. But Wall Street fell sharply on the news.

Europe

Mario Draghi, the ECB president, famously said he ‘would do what it takes’ a couple of years ago. At last he delivered – and in spades. Money printing does not solve real world problems but it does buy time. His plan goes at least until September 2016. The heat is off.

Spain just recorded its 6th quarter of strong economic growth and it is now at levels not seen since 2007!

The problem with Greece voting in a left wing government that is against ‘austerity’ is not what will happen in Greece but what might happen in related countries’ elections in the near future. Is Spain ahead of the curve?

Of course no one likes austerity – and nobody should vote for it (at least willingly) – but when you have maxed out your credit card somebody has to take the loss – the borrower or the lender. At least the SYRIZA party seems to be a reasonable group of left wing people who needed another party to form government. Problem contained!

But the big danger is, Europe has nothing left in the bag if QE doesn’t work to buy enough time. With 12 – 18 months breathing space, investors have time, but time can run out.

Rest of World

The problems in the Middle East that are spilling over into the rest of the world are not going away any time soon. But the possible actions and the consequences are not the stuff for economists. We choose not to comment.

Japan did raise its GDP growth forecast to over 2%, which is not that bad. Canada is joining Russia, Venezuela and Nigeria as those countries are suffering from low oil prices.

In December, Russia hiked its key interest rate from 10.5% to 17% in one go. A month later it dropped that same rate down to 15%. The rouble is in trouble. There seems to be no easy fix for Russia with oil prices and sanctions front of stage.

The best part of the Davos ‘World Economic Forum’ that just concluded was an OPEC chief – and OPEC has controlled oil prices since 1973 – stating that oil prices will stay around current levels for 12 months and then rebound. If he doesn’t know when this will happen, who does? So why didn’t that presentation get more airplay?

*Ron Bewley(PhD,FASSA)– Director, Woodhall Investment Research

Important information

This information is general information only. You should consider the appropriateness of this information with regards to your objectives, financial situation and needs. Infocus Securities Australia Pty Ltd ABN 47 097 797 049 AFSL and Australian Credit Licence No. 236523 trading as Infocus Wealth Management.

The Big Picture

Anyone expecting – at the start of December – a quiet run-in to New Year’s Eve would have been very disappointed. Oil price falls and guess-work over what the US Federal Reserve might say about interest rates caused a severe bout of jitters on markets earlier in December. However, all’s well that ends well.

Wall Street reached new highs in the last days of the year and our market bounced back strongly. Perhaps, like last year, our market might continue its ‘Santa rally’ into January. We have the fair value of the ASX 200 estimated to be 5,550. The market finished the year at 5,411 – up +1.1% on the year and +1.8% on the month.

The big talk at home has centred on our official interest rate. Will they cut, or will they hike? The mood changed over the month but little can reasonably happen before March given past statements by the Reserve Bank.

In spite of pessimism recorded in various confidence surveys, forecasts for Australian economic growth and employment are not bad. Retail sales were up a creditable +0.4% in November.

Overseas, the US and United Kingdom (UK) economies continue to strengthen, the European economy continues to struggle and China still has a managed slow-down to sustainable growth in place. However, Russia is a different story. It was already struggling with the Ukraine conflict and the consequent sanctions placed on Russia. With oil prices almost halving over 2014, Russian exports have taken a massive blow and a serious recession is very likely to follow.

What happens in the Russian economy does not usually affect us much but this time it could be different. President Vladimir Putin is already forced into a corner over Ukraine. If the pressure increases further one might ask if he could over-react. An alliance between China and Russia changes the balance of power in the world and the demand-supply conditions for world resources.

Looking forward to 2015, lower oil (and petrol) prices could make a big difference to consumers at home and abroad leaving more to spend on other goods and services. Even a gentle rise from around $55 per barrel now to $80 per barrel would still leave consumers so much better off than at the start of 2014 when oil was around $100 per barrel. No one is predicting big improvements in oil prices but OPEC must react at some point. As in most situations stability in commodity prices and currencies is worth having to pay a premium for.

It is a relatively safe bet to say that the US economy will strengthen and Wall Street with it – at least, that is, until the US official interest rate rises significantly – probably in 2016.

It is also a fairly safe bet that our economy will not be as strong as that of the US. However, moderate gains on our stock market are consistent with broker forecasts and we expect the ASX 200 to peak during 2015 to somewhere near 6,200. We do not expect the ASX 200 to stay above 6,000 for an extended period of time until late in 2015 or early 2016.

So by expecting capital gains of about 9% on the ASX 200 and 8% on the S&P 500, there is a strong case for some investors to consider diversifying across both asset classes. Dividends on the ASX 200 should be about 4.8% with franking credits on top. Of course investors in overseas share markets need to consider currency risk which might amplify returns or detract from them.

Asset Classes

Australian Equities

With a +1.8% bounce in December, our market finished the year just in front of where it started.  While +1.1% for the year might not seem much, it translates into about +7% when dividends and franking credits are taken into account (and before tax). And that is much better than having been in cash!

There was an unusual divergence in the returns of the Top 20 stocks over 2014. Most resources companies did quite badly while some companies in other sectors did extremely well. Those who favoured the high yielding sectors of Financials (+9.8%), Property (+27.0%), Telcos (+20.8%) and Utilities (+16.1%) should have done very well indeed. As it turns out the defensive Health sector (+24.4%) did particularly well over 2014.

With rates on hold in the US at least for the first half of 2015, the so-called ‘yield play’ seems likely to outperform resource plays in the near term. However, there were some encouraging signs at the very end of 2014 that resources stocks had been over-sold and a bounce might be expected in early 2015. As always there is more expected risk attached to resource stocks over high-yield stocks.

At last there is a reasonable chance that the ASX 200 will exceed 6,000 for a little while in the second half of 2015. It is quite common that investors take profits when big psychological levels, such as 6,000 are breached. If the market does end 2015 at 5,900 or thereabouts as we predict, investors should be very happy, especially because of the relatively high yield and franking credits in Australia.

Volatility is ever-present and increased volatility might occur when the US Fed starts raising rates.

Foreign Equities

Wall Street continued to make new highs in December and the Dow Jones index crossed 18,000 for the first time. Both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes lost a little steam in the last few days but the S&P 500 was up +11.3% on the year. The world index was up only +3.6% over the same period.

The big question for local investors holding US stocks is the impact of our currency. The Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia is trying to talk the dollar down. If he is successful, the S&P 500 returns in $A (Australian dollar) would be amplified. But if it goes the other way, Australian investors would be getting lower returns than their US counterparts.

Bonds

With the US QE programme well behind us, and a clear period of stable official rates ahead, bonds should have a stable future in the near term. But when rates do start to rise in the US, bond yields will rise eroding the expected total returns for bonds.

If the European Central Bank finds a way to purchase government bonds from its member nations as it is trying, some optimism should sweep across Europe in early 2015.

Interest Rates

There were big changes in interest rate expectations in both Australia and the US during December. Analysts switched from forecasting hikes to cuts in 2015 for Australia. The market is pricing in one and a half cuts (to 2.125% from 2.5%) next year but the Governor of the Reserve Bank continues to focus on stability in monetary policy.

We see no need to cut rates as that would have limited impact on the economy. There are better ways to stimulate the economy through fiscal policy from the government – but it does not seem close to moving in that direction yet.

The US Federal Reserve has given strong hints that it will not raise its official rate anytime soon – possibly even after 2015 ends! More than likely there will be one or two very gentle increases in the second half of 2015.

Other Assets

Iron ore prices fell a little further in December but they appeared to stabilise and they even rose back above $70 per tonne at the end of the year. The share prices for BHP and RIO gained later in the month from their 2014 lows.

Oil prices also fell further in December but the share prices of the major Australian energy producers bounced back after, apparently, being oversold.

Gold prices continued to fluctuate near $1,200 in December. Our dollar lost nearly 4% in December to finish the year at $0.8171, after starting 2014 at $0.8948.

Regional Analysis

Australia

The call for rate hikes in Australia changed to a call for cuts during early December. Westpac even went for two rate cuts starting very early in 2015. There were plenty of ‘soft’ data to question the current monetary policy stance but a cut is far from inevitable.

The falling currency and oil prices make parts of the economy potentially much better off. There were +41,800 new jobs created in November but unemployment stands at 6.3%. Full-time employment actually fell by  1,800.

The Reserve Bank did not change rates in December and it does not meet in January. It is also doubtful if they would cut in February without some prior hint so March seems the earliest for us. However, a lot can happen between now and March making a cut unnecessary.

The Treasurer released MYEFO (Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook). The unemployment forecast peak in Q2 2015 has risen from 6.25% to 6.5%. Currently unemployment is 6.3%. The forecast deficit has climbed from $30bn to $40bn and debt is expected to peak at half a trillion dollars. We do have a debt problem.

Clearly the current government is not making any great inroads into economic reform and the Prime Minister’s popularity continues to decline. But economic growth is still forecast to be +2.5% this year and +3.0% next – which is just a fraction below trend.

China

China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing came in on the 1st December at 50.3 and down from the previous month. The January 1st read was 50.1 for the month of December – spot on expectations. Both numbers are above the ‘50’ that divides expansion from contraction. The sequence is gliding towards a stable ‘50’. China is on a stable growth path but quite a few other data releases disappointed in December. It is likely that China will continue with targeted stimulus packages.

China’s consumer price inflation is below target at 1.4% and producer price inflation remains negative at  1.6%. It is unlikely; therefore, that China will just sit on its hands.

U.S.A.

US GDP growth for Q3 was revised upwards from +3.5% to +3.9% in November and its final revision in December lifted growth to +5.0% for Q3!

Non-farm payrolls (employment) data came in at a massive +321,000 – making it the 10th month in a row to beat the psychological level of +200,000 – with the unemployment rate standing at 5.8%.

The all-important Federal Reserve Meeting reinforced that it will be ‘patient’ in waiting for the right time to lift the official rate. The Fed now predicts the rate will be 1.125% at the end of 2015 from 0% – 0.25% at the moment. At the previous meeting, the End of Year (e-o-y) forecast rate was higher at 1.35%. The e o y unemployment forecast is 5.2% and the Fed expects more people to join the workforce in search of jobs to counteract the booming employment numbers.

The Fed also stressed that it will be at least two more meetings before it signals any interest rate rise, making the earliest time for a hike to be June 2015.

US shale oil explorers are reportedly cutting back on their investment in new projects. This behaviour is exactly what OPEC was after when it failed to support oil prices by not restricting supply. Perhaps OPEC will soon reverse the price decline. It has the power to do so.

Europe

The European economies continue to struggle but the European Central Bank did not cut rates at its December meeting. However, there is increasing speculation that the Bank’s president is working on a solution to bring in a full stimulus package very early in 2015.

With political uncertainty forcing an election in Greece on January 25th – three days after the European Central Bank meets – the party that wants to exit the European Union may gain control. However, that is not the same as leaving the euro.

But more importantly, when this situation last arose in 2010 and 2011, people feared a knock-on effect to Spain, Italy and Portugal. Those countries are in much better shape now and bond yields are much lower. There is little to fear from Greece these days. Argentina defaulted last June but hardly anyone outside of that country noticed.

Rest of the World

The sliding price of oil has particularly affected Russia’s economy. It is so dependent on oil exports that the price of oil – along with the Ukraine conflict and the sanctions it has generated – looks likely to launch Russia into a full blown recession in 2015.

China has offered economic support to Russia but such an alliance could make it more difficult for Australia if a Sino-Russian relationship strengthens. Russia is rich in resources – just like Australia.

Russia was forced to increase its key interest rate from 10.5% to 17.0% in one go to help support its crumbling currency, the rouble!

Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was re-elected in December with a very large majority. Already he has announced a $29bn stimulus package to help those who were hurt by the April increase in sales tax. Japan’s Q3 GDP growth was revised down to  1.9% from  1.6%.

The Hong Kong protest against how its politicians are elected ended quietly without any concessions having being won.

After 50 years, the US has at last lifted restrictions on US citizens travelling to Cuba. Obama acknowledged that the restrictions had no discernible impact on Cuba. Cuba welcomed the change but asserted that it will remain Communist!

*Ron Bewley(PhD,FASSA)– Director, Woodhall Investment Research

Important information

This information is the opinion of Infocus Securities Australia Pty Ltd ABN 47 097 797 049 AFSL and Australian Credit Licence No. 236523 trading as Infocus Wealth Management and may contain general advice that does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any person. Before making an investment decision, readers need to consider whether this information is appropriate to their circumstances.