Economic Update

In this month’s update, we provide a snapshot of economic occurrences both nationally and from around the globe.

Key points:

– US inflation ticks up a little but downward trend remains intact, rate cuts further deferred
– Australian inflation close to being back in the RBA target range
– Australian cost-of-living crisis not yet improving

We hope you find this month’s Economic Update as informative as always. If you have any feedback or would like to discuss any aspect of this report, please contact the team.

The Big Picture

Only one month ago, the bond market ascribed a 50% chance to a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in March and an 85% chance of two or more interest rate cuts by June. By the end of February, the chance of a rate cut in March was almost zero while only one cut is still deemed likely by June.

In essence, the market has come back closer to the Fed’s way of thinking as espoused at its December meeting. It now appears that three interest rate cuts in 2024 are more likely, rather than the six or even seven the market had toyed with as late as January this year.

The changes in the market’s expectations are due to updated inflation data and recent Fed commentary. Inflation data are ‘noisy’ (prone to short-term volatility) and are also impacted by such things as changes in the oil price. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data in January and early February were not quite as good (low) as expected but they were not bad or even poor. The Fed’s comments have leant towards their trying to avoid cutting interest rates too soon for fear of a resurgence of inflation that might then force the Fed to revert to a tightening bias from its current neutral or ‘on hold’ stance.

The Fed is important to Australia, not only in terms of the US being a major economic power, but also due to its apparent influence on our central bank, the RBA, which seems likely to wait for the Fed to move before it does. The RBA governor and the committee are new this year and they seem to be still feeling their way a bit.

We see the case for cutting sooner rather than later as being different in the two countries.

The US economic data to date have been much stronger than many had anticipated. Perhaps this is due to savings and government spending (fiscal) policies as having fought against the central bank ‘monetary’ policy in the tightening cycle. However, there are some cracks appearing in the data. US retail sales in value terms only rose by +0.6% over the last 12 months so, with inflation running at +3.1%, inflation-adjusted retail sales (i.e. volume) are going backwards at -2.5% p.a.

US jobs data largely look strong but, as a Bloomberg reporter noted in February, labour market data should be viewed with a ‘dollop’ of salt (rather than the proverbial pinch). Collecting meaningful data is difficult at the best of times. The pandemic has a lot to answer for; the ‘gig’ economy adds new challenges; and the response-rates to data collecting agencies around the world have been tested in recent times.

Here in Australia, massive immigration flows have masked the true state of the economy. When GDP growth is measured in per capita terms, growth in four of the last six quarters has been negative and, even without correcting for population growth, inflation-adjusted retail sales have also been negative in four of the last six quarters. We think that is more than enough evidence to call the Australian economy as, in recession.

On top of the observed aggregate data, we know that mortgage rates have increased rapidly in recent times and any relief from holding fixed-rate mortgages taken during the pandemic has largely dissipated as the ‘mortgage cliff’ rolled over. Contrast the US system that largely depends on mortgagees holding very long-term fixed rates – up to 30 years i.e. the negative cashflow effect of Australian fixed rate borrowers moving from fixed-mortgage rates of circa 2.0% to circa 6.0% as their low fixed-rate terms ended and they began paying the no much higher variable or new fixed rates, did not occur in the US as their mortgages are largely 30-year fixed rate loans.

While the US CPI inflation data released in mid-February was an improvement over the previous month, the data missed market forecasts. The Fed prefers the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) measure because it does not depend on a fixed basket of goods. Rather, the weights in the PCE measure adjust to consumer preferences over time.

The latest PCE inflation read at the end of February was +0.3% for the month of January and +2.4% over the last 12 months. The core variant, that strips out volatile energy and food components, was +0.4% for the month and +2.8% for the year.

The latest wage data in the US, adjusted for inflation ran at +1.4% over the year. While this number might be a little above historical comfort levels, it is necessary for workers to play catch-up in recovering the substantial losses made in the early part of the inflation cycle. We do not see any material evidence for a wage price spiral. Measured inflation expectations in the US have been quite stable at a little above +2%.

Inflation-adjusted wages in Australia have fallen substantially since the onset of the pandemic. However, that fall has since been arrested and there is some evidence of catch-up starting to emerge. If and when inflation falls sustainably back to the 2% to 3% RBA target-band, that does not mean prices return to pre-pandemic levels. Only deflation (negative values of inflation) can restore prices to previous levels or wage increases above inflation for a sustained time are needed to restore cost of living standards.

The latest monthly Australian CPI data for January were released at the end of February. The coverage of this index is around 70% of the quarterly index and that 70% is skewed towards goods rather than services.

The headline rate was +3.4% for the year and +4.1% for the core variant that strips out certain volatile goods like food, energy and vacation travel. We also produce regular in-house measures that better keep track of recent changes in trends. Our latest headline rate was +3.0% and the core was +2.3%. Both were within the RBA target range. We update these estimates every month. Neither variant has been above the target range for the last three, monthly updates.

Australia labour force data posted a second poor monthly reading in a row. Only 500 net new jobs were created following a loss of 65,100 in the prior month. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 3.9%.

Around the world, many countries are suffering relatively poor economic times. Britain and Japan both slipped into recession using the popular ‘two negative quarters of economic growth’ definition. Interestingly, both of their major stock market indexes posted strong gains following these data releases. This type of behaviour underpins our view that our market does not necessarily have to perform poorly if further economic weakness becomes apparent. Markets are based on expectations while most economic data is a view in the rear-vision mirror.

After about a year of Ukraine holding its own against Russia, a lack of decision-making in the US Congress has led to a disruption in military supplies. Probably as a result, a major Ukrainian city fell to Russian forces during February. There has not been much impact of this conflict on economies in the rest of the word. But, without renewed support from the US in particular, that could change.

The Israel-Palestine conflict shows little sign of abating. The human suffering has reportedly been immense. There seems little chance of a resolution any time soon. The Israel GDP fell 20% in the December quarter compared to an expected fall of ‘only’ 10%.

Bond markets have stabilised and Wall Street has powered on following healthy report cards from the AI-chip designer NVIDIA and some others from the so-called ‘Magnificent Seven’ mega tech stocks.

The S&P 500 reached record highs in February as did the ASX 200. Even the Nikkei posted an all-time high that had stood since 1989!

The investing outlook will largely depend on how central banks report conditions and prospects, as much the actual data themselves. But conditions can change rapidly. If they do, we expect heightened equity-market volatility but longer-run prospects seem average to above average for investors in the nearer term.

Asset Classes

Australian Equities

The ASX 200 made a new all-time high in February but finished the month almost flat. The performances of the sectors were polarised. Energy, Materials and Telcos all fell more than -5% over the month. Consumer Discretionary gained more than +5% and IT gained nearly +20%!

Companies reporting earnings in February produced a mixed bag of results and, as a result, the broker forecasts collected by LSEG that we analyse show a slight weaking in earnings expectations for the next 12 months. However, that expectation is still just above the historical average.

International Equities

The London FTSE was flat in February but all of the other major indexes we follow gained around +4% or more. The S&P 500 was up +5.2%.

A lot of the impetus in Wall Street appears to have come from the big beat of the AI-chip designer, NVIDIA, earnings and prospects. This behaviour gives us some faith in the continuance of the Magnificent Seven rally that started a year ago – although one or two of the ‘seven’ seem to have fallen away from the peloton somewhat.

Our analysis of the LSEG broker forecasts reveal that forward expectations have held up through the US reporting season.

Bonds and Interest Rates

After 1 February Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting, in which rates were kept in hold at 5.25% to 5.5%, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell stated that they were ‘confident inflation is coming down’ but that ‘they are not confident enough to start cutting’ yet.

The CME Fedwatch tool is pricing in about a 2% chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut at the March meeting. There is a modest chance of a rate cut priced in by the May meeting but there is over a 60% chance of a cut at the June meeting of the FOMC. The median expected number of interest rate cuts by the end of the year is three, but four rate cuts have a broadly similar probability.

Official US inflation data have been steadily improving but the gains are sluggish arguably because of the manner in which the shelter component of the price index is calculated. Currently shelter inflation stands at +6% and its weight in the CPI is around one third. Most commentators believe that the true measure for shelter is more like +3%. Therefore, we expect a big correction of 1% point or more in the CPI when the measure catches up with reality.

The RBA kept rates ‘on hold’. In the first media conference in the new RBA board setting, the governor may have embarrassed the board by trying to walk away from the three cuts in 2024 contained in the notes. She said that these three cuts were not forecasts or expectations but ‘assumptions’ as though this was a new category in policy making. It would be illogical to use anything but expectations for assumptions unless the Board wanted to convey outcomes under clearly differentiated assumptions such as base, best case and worst case.

Australian inflation data measured over the trailing 12-months is still above the RBA target range of 2.0% to 3.0% but it is well within that range when a shorter time period is used. We think there is little to no evidence of wage inflation becoming a problem if rates are cut and the data measuring demand point to a struggling economy for the average Australian. However, very strong immigration flows mask the extent of this economic weakness in the aggregate data.

We believe that the RBA will try to wait for the Fed to cut interest rates first before it takes its own corrective action. Therefore, we see the overhang of tight monetary policy causing even further hardship. Market expectations data support no cuts in the near term.

If we are correct in our analysis of the true state of the Australian economy and its likely course in the short-run, the RBA might be forced to do bigger cuts of say 50 bps when it does start easing policy.

Japan’s inflation rate has pulled back sufficiently for some to suggest that it may at last be able to start returning its benchmark rate to above 0% for the first time since 2016!

Other Assets

The price of oil recovered even more ground in February resulting in Brent ending the month at $US84 per barrel (Brent Crude price). This level is far from the $US95 that caused such problems with our inflation at the end of the September quarter. That oil price spike was caused by the onset of the Israel-Palestine conflict.

The price of iron ore again fell around 10% but, at $US117 per tonne, it is still well above the $US100 level that it came close to in the second half of 2023.

The prices of copper and gold were largely flat over February.

The Australian dollar – against the US dollar – depreciated by -0.8%.

Regional Review

Australia

Australian retail sales (in volume terms) rose +0.3% in the December quarter and fell -1.0% over 2023. Volume sales fell in four of the last six quarters. When population growth is taken into account, sales volumes fell by around -3.5% in 2023. This measure emphasises the extent of the very real cost-of-living crisis.

With the latest household savings ratio at 1.1% (compared to around 4% to 6% in normal times), growth for the December quarter – to be released in the first week of March – will slow appreciably from the +0.2% for the September quarter (+2.1% for the year) – or households will have been forced into no saving – or even dis-saving. A rate cut by the RBA, if passed on to mortgage holders would alleviate some of this burden in future quarters.

The labour force data were again very weak. Only 500 jobs were created in January but there was a switch of around 10,000 jobs from part-time to full-time. We previously reported that data for December were particularly grim but we attributed some of that apparent weakness to inappropriate statistical procedures designed to remove predictable seasonal patterns.

The unemployment rate is less susceptible to these adjustments as it is the ratio of two quantities, so adjusted. The latest unemployment rate is 4.1%, up from 3.9% the month before and 3.5% in June 2023. That makes the average unemployment rate equal to 4.0% for the last three months which is 0.5% above the low over the previous 12 months. A gap of that size is the basis of the Sahm-rule (named after the Fed member who devised the indicator) to predict a forthcoming recession.

The wage price index came in at +4.2% growth for 2023 which is above the +3.1% CPI inflation index over the same period. This 1.1% premium does not show wage demand is problematic. On average, wage growth should exceed price growth as workers are rewarded for productivity gains.

The current inflation-adjusted wage (or real wage) is 7% below its mid-2020 level. Workers are only able to buy 7% less in volume terms and there is the cumulative impact of this real wage-cut over time.

China 

China’s economic data continue to be weak but not so much as to jeopardise our exports of iron ore and other commodities from Australia. The latest official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing was a slight beat at 49.1 but below the 50-level that separates contraction from expansion in expectations.

China did move in February to cut a key interest rate and it seems to be pursuing an expansionary policy, albeit more slowly and carefully than in recent times.

China must deal with the problems of debt levels in its property sector while only stimulating the non-property sectors.

US

US CPI headline inflation came in at +0.3% for January against an expected +0.2% and +3.1% for the year against an expected +2.9%. Core inflation was +0.4% for the month against an expected 0.3% and 3.9% for the year against an expected 3.7%. The actual data were quite good compared to recent history but economists had reduced their forecasts quite sharply. Thus, the outcomes were considered poor (higher inflation being bad) and the chance of an interest rate cut was deferred further.

Our rolling quarterly estimates (annualised) were +2.8% p.a. and +4.0% p.a. for the headline and core CPI variants, respectively. Both were higher than in the prior month.

However, the real issue is how the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) calculates a key component – shelter. Bloomberg reported that the BLS sent out an email to some clients about the problems with this component and then retracted it causing ‘confusion’. It has been suggested that this data problem might take five months to work through the system.

The Fed’s preferred PCE inflation data painted an even better picture. The monthly headline rate was +0.3% while for the year it was +2.4%. It’s getting very close to the target 2%! The core monthly read was +0.4% and for the year it was +2.8%. Given the problems we are experiencing with the shelter component of the CPI data, we are relying more heavily on the PCE measure at this time in our analysis.

US jobs grew by an unexpected and very large 353,000 in January. The expected range was 120,000 to 300,000 showing the high degree of uncertainty in the labour market data. Past data were also revised sharply. The unemployment rate remains at a healthy level of 3.7%.

Retail sales came in at -0.8% for January (expected -0.3%) following a revised +0.4% for December. The annual figure was +0.6% which was well below inflation at +3.1%. In real terms, the consumer is not as strong as some would have us believe.

The December quarter GDP estimate was revised down slightly from +3.3% to +3.2%.

Europe

Britain went into a ‘technical recession’ with its latest growth data for the December quarter. However, its retail sales in value terms grew by 3.4% in January after a ‘grim’ December. These data are very much in line with the recent US sales values that showed January was up 1.1% following a December decline of -2.1%. In short, we firmly believe that traditional seasonal patterns are being disrupted by ‘Black Friday’ internet sales. The Bank of England had kept its interest rate on hold at 5.25%.

Rest of the World

Israel’s December quarter GDP growth plunged by -20% compared to an expected fall of -10%. With so many Israelis mobilised to enter the conflict in Gaza, it might take some time for the situation to get back to normal in both a human and an economic sense.

Russia has taken advantage of a disruption in US aid to take over a large Ukrainian city in their ongoing conflict.

Japan entered a ‘technical recession’ but there seem to be two favourable outcomes. Inflation has dropped leading to a possible return to normal monetary policy settings (rather than the -0.1% base rate that has been in place since 2016). Secondly, after 35 years, the Nikkei share price index reached a new all-time high.

We acknowledge the significant contribution of Dr Ron Bewley and Woodhall Investment Research Pty Ltd in the preparation of this report.

In this month’s update, we provide a snapshot of economic occurrences both nationally and from around the globe.

Key points:
– The US Federal Reserve has pivoted from a tightening interest rate policy to an easing one
– Markets are looking at growth and inflation data points to estimate first interest rate cuts
– Economic indicators are softening but inflation is still at risk from the Middle East conflict

We hope you find this month’s Economic Update as informative as always. If you have any feedback or would like to discuss any aspect of this report, please contact the team.

The Big Picture

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman, Jerome Powell, started last December by pronouncing it was ‘premature to talk about rate cuts’. By the end of December, the Fed ‘pivot’ was locked in (and the Fed had changed from a tightening interest rate policy bias to an easing one). Even the Fed then expected three cuts in 2024 but the market wanted more, forecasting up to 6!

During January 2024 opinions settled into less diverse scenarios. Cuts are still very much on the table but the 31 January meeting was considered ‘dead’, i.e. no change to interest rates throughout the month. However, the market had ascribed about a 50% chance of a cut in March and an 85% chance of at least two cuts by June.

Powell did not disappoint by keeping rates on hold but he did upset the market by saying that ‘he didn’t see a cut in March’. He said he was confident that inflation has been on track over the last six months but that he was not sufficiently confident to start cutting interest rates by March.

After these comments by Powell, the market priced in a 35% change of an interest rate cut in March. But the market is still pricing in two or more cuts by June at around a 90% chance. The bond market is still pricing in six cuts this year but the S&P 500 lost steam after Powell’s post Fed meeting press conference losing -1.6% on the day.

Interestingly, a survey conducted by media company CNBC just prior to the January Fed meeting reported that only 9% of respondents expected a cut by March and 70% said the first cut would be in June! Economists and traders often disagree. Usually only the latter has real skin in the game.

Depending on how one looks at the data – in the US and Australia – one can see a serious slow down or, at the other extreme, a gentle ‘soft landing’. The deciding factor, as we see it, relates to how one interprets the factors that caused the recent slow-down in inflation across the major economies. Those who think it was the deft response of central banks harnessing demand-side inflation with rate cuts, fear letting monetary policy ease – in case inflation then consequently re-emerges. This is Powell’s stated position.

Those who think the source of the inflation, starting in 2020 from the Covid pandemic, largely resulted from the supply side (i.e. global production slowed because of lockdowns, likewise transportation of goods largely stopped and the price of available goods rose materially due to lack of local supply during, and after the Covid restrictions eased, this being further exacerbated by the Ukraine war) are of the view that interest rates could be cut without inflation being reignited because the supply side issues have ceased. This group includes some eminent people – bankers and academics and a Nobel Laureate.

While we subscribe to this view more recently, we agree that rates could be cut without material consequence at this juncture. Failure to cut interest rates from the current restrictive levels could see them rapidly start to bite and cause economies to slow more than anticipated or intended by Central Banks. However, we do not as yet advocate the respective interest rates should move to below the neutral rate of about 2.5% to 3% in this easing cycle and certainly, they should not reduce back to emergency levels.

It has only been a little over a year since monetary policy in Australia and the US has been tightened (above the neutral rate). With the long and variable lags (say, 12 to 18 months) of effect of monetary policy settings, we are only just starting to witness some slowing effects from the interest rate hikes. Fed chair Powell acknowledged this in his January press release.

Of course, the pandemic added its own idiosyncrasies into the mix. People were forced to save because of lack of opportunities to spend under lock downs and governments added stimulus payments to ease the crisis. Those excess savings sheltered economies from monetary policy tightening – for a while. This time was indeed different but those excess savings have now largely been depleted. We are back to normal conditions for assessing monetary policy effects.

The latest Australian labour force data (for December) revealed an apparent massive crack in the economy. Total employment went down by 65,100 but the full-time position loss was even worse. 106.600 full-time jobs were lost in a month while the population grew by 48,200.

The monthly data does jump around somewhat but we have only had six months of decreases in the last 24 and the next worst result was less than half of the December outcome.

The unemployment rate held up at 3.9% but only because of the discouraged-worker effect. People who left jobs and didn’t bother joining the unemployment queues!

Before we jump to a disturbing conclusion, it is important to note that data have regular seasonal patterns (e.g. temperature related demand). The ABS uses averaging techniques to remove the regular seasonal component so that month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter changes better reflect new directions rather than predictable seasonal patterns.

For many data series, the ABS also smooths the seasonal data to produce ‘trend data’ so that longer-run trends become more apparent. While these are useful for a cursory glance, we tend not to rely on trend data in research houses and create our own opinions of underlying movement.

So, in relation to employment the actual number of jobs (original data) went up by 18,400 and not down sharply in December by the seasonally-adjusted 65,100. It was the statistical process designed to smooth out the data that did the damage. What if the seasonal patterns have changed since last year? We have had a year of record immigration and December is a month when lots of students start to enter the workforce. The large loss could be due to a statistical anomaly.

Furthermore, the monthly official data are prone to bounce around as the figure for the population are extrapolated from a very small sample. In addition to the sampling issue, it has been noted in various countries that telephone surveys are becoming less reliable because younger folk are less likely to ‘pick up’ the phone call from a number not familiar to them.

We are not unnecessarily concerned over these employment data but we are on alert to look for more clues when the January data are released in mid-February.

The US jobs data seemed somewhat stronger. 216,000 jobs were created compared to the expected 170,000. The expected range of forecasts was quite wide: 100,000 to 250,000. Importantly, digging deeper, reflected new jobs yet again largely being created in less productive sectors. The three-month average of new jobs was 165,000 compared to 284,000 in the same period a year earlier. And these data have a strong tendency to be revised downwards in subsequent months.

The US labour market is slowing and possibly a little more quickly than the headline data appear to convey.

It seems to be generally agreed that inflation in the US and Australia is returning to target levels more quickly than many had anticipated. Our own calculations based on more timely measures indeed suggest inflation is all but back to target.

However, the big issue on the sidelines might be events starting to cause a second-round oil-price inflation problem like that at the onset of the Ukraine conflict.

We are not experts in analysing military conflicts and their evolution but a simple reading of respectable news sources leads us to note that the Israel-Palestine conflict has involved more countries and groups over the last couple of months.

Some oil tankers and container ships are reportedly being diverted away from the Red Sea route to Europe and the US (and the reverse) because of drone and other attacks. The route via the Cape of Good Hope adds much time and, hence, cost to traded goods.

Brent oil prices declined to about US$75 per barrel before the Middle East conflict after having been US$95 slightly earlier in 2023. Brent oil bounced back to US$85 and has settled to just below that level – so some new inflation pressures must be building.

We have no insight into how, or indeed if, the conflict will be resolved but it is apparent that some of the hard-fought gains in inflation control will be eroded. However, it is equally obvious that keeping interest rates higher for longer will do nothing to reduce oil-price inflation pressure.

Markets have largely performed well in January. The S&P 500 and the ASX 200 reached all-time highs during the month. Bond yields have retraced a little from the late 2023 fall but not alarmingly so.

With the December quarter reporting season in the US and second half reporting season in Australia getting underway, we have a great opportunity to understand better what 2024 has in store for us. Our analysis of LSEG (formerly Thomson Reuters) company earnings expectations suggests that the outlook for 2024 has, if anything, improved over January as brokers update their forecasts.

The early reporting results on Wall Street have produced a bit of a mixed bag of success and failure in the big tech space. United Parcel Service (UPS) is laying off lots of workers because it doesn’t see internet-created demand sustaining the old system. Big Tech might not perform anywhere are strongly as it did in 2023 but we are expecting above average gains in the broad index.

But with recent all-time highs on the US S&P 500 and the local ASX 200, and stable bond markets, 2024 does not look bad! We think the Fed will do what we expected and cut interest rates as it does not want to alarm markets by changing their monetary policy direction and settings too much and too quickly despite it now being characterised as a ‘pivot’.

Asset Classes

Australian Equities

The ASX 200 was modestly up in January (+1.2%), largely because the index started the month at an elevated level following the December rally, but that was not so for the individual sectors. Energy and Financials each grew about +5.0% but Materials (-4.8%) fell by a largely offsetting amount. The broader index closed January at an all-time high.

January and July often witness bigger changes in broker expectations about earnings as the new half-yearly reporting season sets to get underway (for February and August). We did not see much change this January but, if anything, expectations point to a slightly stronger year than we saw for 2024 at the end of 2023.

However, the consensus end of year (eoy) 2024 forecast we have gleaned from published reports (made at January 1st) from reputable houses was, for the ASX 200, 7,600 points or just below the closing value on 31 January (7,681). While we are not expecting a bumper 2024, our analysis suggests that this consensus forecast could be a little too pessimistic. Our expected capital gains in the ASX 200 look reasonable but when dividends and franking credits are factored in, this asset is worthy of serious consideration for 2024.

International Equities

Japan’s share market index, the Nikkei, had a particularly strong month (+8.4%) but the US S&P 500 (+1.6%) was only moderately strong – largely because of the big sell-off on the last day of January following the Fed’s press conference. China (-6.3%) and Emerging Markets (-3.1%) went backwards.

A lot might depend on whether the Artificial Intelligence (AI)-led rally of 2023 continues or, indeed, retraces. Without the so-called Magnificent Seven (big technology stocks), the S&P 500 index would not have been impressive at all in 2023.

However, the consensus eoy 2024 forecast we have gleaned for the S&P 500 from published reports (made at 1 January) was 5,000 points or just above the closing value on 31 January (4,846). While we are not expecting a bumper 2024, our analysis of broker forecasts suggests that this consensus is somewhat pessimistic.

Bonds and Interest Rates

At the end of January the Fed funds interest rate was on hold at a range 5.25% to 5.5%. The CME Fedwatch tool is pricing in about a 35% chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut at the Fed’s March meeting. The same source is predicting that there is only about a 10% chance of the Fed funds interest rate being unchanged by June. The prospect of two or three 0.25% interest rate cuts by June being about the same and collectively by far the most likely outcome.

The European Central Banks (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) also kept interest rates on hold in January in spite of their slightly improving inflation outlooks.

The RBA kept our interest rates ‘on hold’ on their meeting on the first Tuesday in February. In our opinion, there is evidence that the Australia economy is in need of some rate relief, as the surging immigration levels are masking the cost-of-living pressures on the average household.

Since company earnings from selling to Australians are determined by aggregate demand – and not by per capita (household) demand – the ASX 200 can grow while a per capita recession takes place.

The 10-year Treasury yield in the US fell from just on 5% in October to a recent low of 3.8%, since then it drifted up a fraction to 4.1%. After the latest Fed meeting this yield retraced to just under 4.0%. The Australian 10-year yield ended January at 4.01%.

We expect some more visibility on Australian monetary policy from the RBA from here onwards, as the new committee appears to be charged with the task of improving communications.

Other Assets

The price of oil bounced back sharply from December’s lows. Both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude oil were up by about +8% largely on the impact of the Middle East conflict and more recently issues with shipping in the Red Sea.

The prices copper and gold were largely flat over January. The price of iron ore fell by -6.3%.

The Australian dollar – against the US dollar – depreciated by -3.9% which will not help our inflation cause through import prices increases.
Regional Review

Australia

Australian November retail sales (in value terms) published at the start of January surprised at +2.0% for the month – but they grew only +2.2% for the year. This growth becomes negative when inflation is taken into account. In addition, population growth running at about +2.5% p.a. suggests the average citizen was consuming a lot less in inflation and population-adjusted terms.

The monthly retail value data for December were published at the end of January. The seasonally adjusted monthly growth for December was  2.3% (not annualised) wiping out the November gain. But, just as with the change in employment data, retail sales as collected by the ABS were up +14.3% on the month in ‘original terms’. It was the seasonal adjustment process that converted +14.3% into -2.3%.

Non-specialists might ask if the ABS is competent at performing the task at hand. While we think the ABS is world class, their task is very difficult when seasonal patterns are changing. In due course, we believe that the data will be revised. They will still likely not be good but not as bad as we see at first sight.

There were also two reads on the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation gauge published in January owing to the delay in reporting November data because of our holiday season.

Both the headline and the core monthly variants for November were +0.3%. The 12-month gains were +4.3% for the headline and +4.8% for the core variant that excludes volatile energy, food and holiday travel. Our rolling quarterly estimates which we produce each month was +3.0% p.a. for both the headline and core variants. That puts these inflation estimates at the top of the RBA target range.

At the end of January, quarterly CPI data were released. The monthly data, in order to be more timely, has only about 70% coverage of the quarterly basket of goods and services.

The official read for the Quarterly index series was +0.6% for the quarter and +4.1% for the year (expected +4.3%). Note that +0.6% for the quarter, if annualised, becomes +2.4% p.a. and is within the RBA target range.

The monthly series official reads over the year for December were +3.4% from +4.3% for the headline and +4.0% from +4.6% for the core. Our in-house rolling quarterly estimates (annualised) were +1.3% p.a. for the headline and +2.4% p.a. for the core. The RBA has over-achieved! +1.3% is below the target range.

The core measures over the last five months have been +5.5%, +5.1%, +4.1%, +2.7% and +2.4%. We think that is a stable downward trend and indicative of the RBA may have gone too far, and at a minimum, far enough, given the lags in the system for interest rate hikes to work through. With the RBA target range being 2-3% the RBA needs to act in a timely manner with rate cuts to prevent overshooting on core inflation.

The jobs data for December showed that the participation rate had fallen from 67.3% to 66.8% reflecting a strong discouraged worker effect. In essence, 41,400 full-time jobs were converted to part-time while, in addition, 65,100 full-time jobs were lost from the workforce. The unemployment rate remained at 3.9%.

China

China’s GDP growth came in at +5.2% against an expected +5.3% but the market seemed to interpret this result as being very weak. Retail sales also missed at +7.4% compared to +8.0% expected but industrial output at +6.8% beat the +6.6% forecast.

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) a measure of industrial demand was 49.0 for December which was down from the 49.4 read in November. At the end of January the PMI for January rose slightly to 49.2.

The big problem in China still relates to the debt burden mainly of property developers. The Hong Kong government recently ruled that Evergrande the formally very large mainland property developer should be placed into liquidation. The government is reportedly trying to ring-fence a few of the big developers to stop a spread of the problem. At the end of the January, China noted that it had merged ‘hundreds of rural banks’ to reduce risks of failure.

US

US CPI inflation came in at +0.3% for both the headline and the core variants of the measure.

Over the year, headline inflation has come down to +3.4% and the core to +3.9%. While these numbers are far from the Fed target of 2% the market seemed to breathe a sigh of relief that substantial progress had been made.

Our rolling quarterly estimates (annualised) were +1.8% p.a. and +3.3% p.a. for the headline and core variants, respectively. The headline rate was below the Fed target of 2%! There should be two more releases of the US CPI before the next Fed meeting to make the next interest rate call.

The Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data painted an even better picture. The monthly core and headline rates were each +0.2% while for the year they were +2.9% and +2.6% respectively.

The Fed fears a resurgence in inflation if it starts to cut too soon. Supply-side shocks such as higher oil prices and disrupted supply chains due to restricted access to the Suez Canal due to the conflict in the Middle East, are almost unpredictable and inflation expectations data do not support a demand-side surge in inflation.

The US consumer appeared to be somewhat resilient in January. Retail sales (for December) grew by +0.6% – well ahead of inflation. The December quarter GDP growth was +3.3% when only +2.0% had been expected. The household savings ratio fell to +4.0% from +4.2% indicating some pressure on budgets.

Over 2023, economic growth was +2.5% following +1.9% for the previous year. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed that 28% of Americans thought the economy is in excellent or good shape. The corresponding figure for April 2022 was only 19% but, in January 2020, just prior to the onset of the pandemic, the Michigan figure was 57%.

While some reported that the current 28% figure showed some resilience, we think it would at least be equally plausible to state that the consumer is not as pessimistic as they were but nowhere near as optimistic as they were before the interest rate-hiking cycle began.

Existing home sales were the lowest since 1995 but, that is to be expected when mortgage rates are historically high and expected to fall in the coming months.

Europe

German inflation rose to +3.8% while, for the eurozone, it was +2.9%. The UK recorded +4.6% inflation and its retail sales fell -3.2% when a fall of only -0.5% had been expected.

The Europe economy is clearly in a worse position than the US and it has been paying the price for once becoming so dependent on energy/fuel from Russia.

Rest of the World

The conflict in the Middle East has certainly escalated and the deaths of US soldiers has seen a retaliatory military action against specific targets in the region, in particular to stem the terrorist attacks from inside Yemen on ships in and around the Red Sea and other military targets. To date, the economic consequences of the conflict seem less than that from the Ukraine war as there is a simple, but costlier, option to avoid the Red Sea shipping lanes by diverting round the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa to access Europe and the US particularly with crude oil sourced from the Middle East.

In this month’s update, we provide a snapshot of economic occurrences both nationally and from around the globe.

Key points:

– US Fed pivots its interest rate policy
– Current estimates are for between three and eight interest rate cuts in the US in 2024
– The RBA while most unlikely to raise rates again does not appear to be in a hurry to start cutting
– Share markets respond positively to the Fed pivot and finish 2023 well into positive territory

We hope you find this month’s Economic Update as informative as always. If you have any feedback or would like to discuss any aspect of this report, please contact your Financial Adviser.

The Big Picture
Given how markets finished up in 2023, there was a lot of pain endured in getting there.

The US 10-year Government Bond yield went from 3.8% to 3.8% via just above 5.0%

ASX 200 screamed up in January 2023 only to shed all those gains, and more, as the US regional bank crisis shook confidence. But the ASX 200 rallied back and gained 7.8% on the year (without dividends and franking credits)!

The S&P 500 was dominated by the so-called ‘Magnificent 7’ – 7 mega cap tech stocks like Apple, Amazon and Nvidia. The ‘other 493’ did not fare so well but they did finish the year with a little bit of a flourish. The index gained 24.2% on the year.

The Dow Jones reached an all-time high in the last week of 2023. The S&P 500 and the ASX 200 each came very close to all-time highs in the final week of the year.

There were plenty of obstacles along the way in 2023 that prevented markets moving in a straight line. US Regional banks’ crises, Israel-Gaza conflict, Red Sea drone attacks and the rest. But the big one was trying to second-guess central banks as they bobbed and weaved in their battle with inflation. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) stuck to its guns of reiterating higher for longer until mid-December. It even stated on December 2nd that it was ‘premature’ to talk about interest rates cuts. Then a slew of favourable data on US inflation convinced it to ‘pivot’ (change its mind) at its last meeting and press conference for the year – just two weeks after the ‘premature’ statement! The Fed dot plot forecasts for cash rates at various intervals for the coming few years (from 19 Fed members) suggested there might be three 0.25% interest rate cuts in 2024.

While the above is the view of the Fed board members, the US Government bond market is taking a different view with current interest rates implying a 96% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates between five and eight times in 2024. Needless to say, the Fed ‘pivot’ in December has seen the US bond prices rally strongly (interest rates falling).

Surprisingly, the RBA minutes revealed that Australia’s central bank was still considering a rate increase at its December 5th board meeting, this approach puts it at odds will all other developed world central banks. Despite this, in Australia, for four of the last five quarters, per capita GDP went backwards, the household savings ratio nearly fell to zero and retail sales showed lots of weakness.

While the RBA clearly has some concerns regarding the stubbornness of inflation there is growing evidence that the economy is slowing and interest rate policy has done enough to contain inflation. The concern now is that unless the RBA joins in with its developed world peers and begins easing monetary policy (reducing interest rates) then it risks sending the economy into a more sever slowdown than is otherwise anticipated.

The RBA interest rate tracker app on the ASX website assigns an 8% chance of a rate hike at its next meeting in February. The predominant outcome currently predicted is ‘no change’ to the RBA cash interest rate.

Media reports have possibly led many astray as they portrayed the Fed increasing interest rates from 0% to 5.5% in less than two years as being aggressive and strongly contractionary and will ultimately result in an economic recession, which hasn’t happened yet.  This narrative is ignoring the whole point of monetary policy.

There is an economic concept of a ‘neutral’ central bank interest rate that neither causes the economy to slow down, nor is it accommodative. Most economists would agree that the neutral rate for the US and Australia – among others – is about 2.5% to 3.0%. That means the first set of Fed hikes shouldn’t have slowed down the economy until 3% was exceeded in September 2022! They’ve only had 2.5% points of tightening and not 5.5%! The first 3% of hikes were simply being less accommodative.

The other key insight is that at least from the late 1960s, it has been widely thought that the implementation of this sort of monetary policy acts with ‘long and variable lags’. Conventional wisdom is that this time frame is around 12 – 18 months. Even central bankers have agreed on occasion!

Putting these two concepts together and applying it to our current cycle, the first interest rate tightening that started in September 2022 shouldn’t have had any material impact until September 2023 to March 2024. So, the media tell us economists ‘got it wrong’ by stating that the anticipated recession never happened, when the more considered statement is ‘it hasn’t happened yet’. From an economic perspective it is just too early to say ‘it didn’t happen’, notwithstanding that it may not. Some reasons for this are that, US consumers were awash with Covid stimulus cheques and a student loan moratorium until October 2023. And fourth quarter US GDP data, even its preliminary form, is not available until late January 2024 so we don’t yet know how the US economy is travelling in late 2023.

There is likely to be plenty of pain in the pipeline for 2024 from rate hikes not yet felt. By reasonable definitions, Australia has been in recession for most of 2023 but massive immigration – running at about 2.6% of population – has distorted the headline data from revealing the hardship facing many.

The US economy is doing better than ours but there seems to be cracks appearing in the data picture. There has been solid job growth but increasingly this growth has not been in those sectors usually associated with a strong economy. Both the US and UK official statistics agencies have had to change their data collection methods to get normal response rates to survey methods. It is very difficult to measure what the unemployment rate really is!

It’s not obvious that recent labour force data can usefully be interpreted in the traditional manner. Moreover, with the growth in options to work in casual food and ride delivery, it is much easier for those who want to work to do so. The definition of work has changed.

With regard to market forecasts – particularly for the ASX 200 and S&P 500 – earnings forecasts are quite strong. LSEG (formerly Thomson Reuters) collects broker-forecasts of earnings for the relevant companies in the indices. Companies are required to report material changes in their expectations and they share their view of their futures with the brokers.

We have found over nearly two decades that these earnings expectations give useful guides to market direction. Of course, there is always the possibility of a ‘black swan’ event or some geopolitical upheaval.

Asset Classes

Australian Equities
The ASX 200 had a very strong December (+7.1%) to back up a strong November (+4.5%) to make a two-month total of near 12%.

The Materials sector did well at +8.8% in line with strong iron ore prices (+7.3%).

Total returns for the year were 12.4% making it a well-above average year. By our metrics we have the market overpriced by +3.3% making that a bit of a headwind for 2024. However, news of actual interest rate cuts might still spur on the market to new highs. Markets usually lead the real economy!

International Equities
The S&P 500 gained +4.4% for the month or 24.2% for the year. The London FTSE and the German DAX were similarly strong for the month but Japan’s Nikkei was flat. China’s Shanghai Composite fell by -1.8%.

We have the S&P 500 overpriced by +4.6% so, by our estimation, that index also faces a modest headwind starting the year.

Bonds and Interest Rates
It seems that almost every economist and commentator is expecting cuts by the Fed during 2024. 75 bps of cuts seems to be the smallest number being predicted. There is an 11% chance of eight cuts to a range of 3.00% to 3.25%.

We think the Fed might start at the March meeting and then go again in June taking the rate down to a range 4.75% to 5.0%. What happens thereafter would seem to be highly dependent on whether inflation and unemployment stay down and GDP growth remains solid.

US CPI inflation over the last six months was below target at 1.9% pa.

The 10-yr US Treasurys yield fell from just over 5% on October 23rd to 3.88% at the end of the year.

The RBA minutes stated that the board considered a hike at their last board meeting. The newly constructed committee to deal with rate movements is expected to meet on the first Tuesday in February.

The ECB and the Bank of England appear to be on hold. EU inflation fell to 2.4% from 2.9% when 2.7% was expected with the core rate falling to 3.6% from 4.2%. Both economies are flirting with recessions.

Other Assets 
The price of oil dropped sharply again in December with – West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) by -5.7% and Brent Crude by -7.0%. Brent ended the year at US$77 per barrel having traded in a range of $72 to $97 over 2023. OPEC+ appears to be losing its grip over controlling oil supply which they have historically used to influence the market price for oil.

The price of iron ore again rose very strongly – at 7.3% in December or +20.7% for the year. Copper and gold prices each rose in December by just under 2%.

The Australian dollar – against the US dollar – appreciated by 2.9% which will further help reduce import prices and, hence, domestic inflation in Australia.

Regional Review

Australia
Australian GDP growth for the September quarter disappointed at 0.2% being less than the expected +0.4%. The growth for the year was 2.1%.

But the really disappointing news was that per capita growth for the quarter was -0.5% and -0.3% for the year. The average resident went backwards in 2023.

The last three quarters of growth were all negative and four of the last five were negative. That should define a recession in anybody’s analysis.

GDP per hour also went backwards for the year at -2.1%. Importantly, the household savings ratio fell to 1.1% from 2.8% in the previous quarter and from 3.5% in the one prior.

These statistics do not mean that households are spending more than they earn – at least not yet – but they are saving less than they did before the pandemic – at around 5%. We interpret these data as meaning households are having trouble maintaining their lifestyle in the face of cost-of-living pressures. They are not saving enough for a ‘rainy day’ or retirement. At 1.1% as a savings ratio, there’s not much room left before households have to start going into debt.

While it is true that (the rate of) inflation has been falling – prices keep rising and wage increases have been insufficient to keep pace with price inflation.

The latest inflation print from the Australian Bureau of Statistics has been held over for a couple of weeks – as has the data for retail sales – owing to the Christmas and summer holidays.

The Labour Force Survey data looked good for November. There were 61,500 new jobs of which 57,000 were full-time positions. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8%. But, with immigration surging, how many jobs constitute a good number?

The Westpac and NAB consumer and business confidence indices were all weak and consistent with being in a recession.

Hopefully the RBA will see past the immigration flows distorting traditional economic statistics and not only not increase interest rates but give serious consideration to cutting them sooner rather than later.

China 
China’s inflation data showed that it is experiencing deflation. CPI inflation came in as expected at -0.5% and wholesale price inflation as measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI) was -3.0% against and expected -2.8%.

While there is much speculation that China’s economy is struggling, the strength in iron ore prices gives us some comfort that China will not be adding to our economic woes.

US
US CPI inflation came in at 0.0% for the month and 3.1% for the year. The core inflation variant that strips out volatile fuel and food prices was 0.3% for the month and 3.4% for the year. PPI inflation was 0.0% for the month.

Our method of calculating CPI inflation, based on sound statistical principles, produced estimates of 2.2% for the headline rate and 3.4% for the core variant.

It is worth pointing out that a major component of CPI inflation is derived from Shelter (housing) estimates. A survey is conducted among owner-occupied housing to ask what they think the rent might be if it were rented out. We see this as a difficult estimate to produce at the best of times but, in a post-pandemic falling market we wonder whether there is inertia in owner’s assessment about what their properties are worth in a rental market. This component is running at around an inflation rate of 6% which could upwardly bias CPI estimates if, indeed, we are correct.

The Fed’s preferred core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) inflation read was 0.1% for the month or 3.2% for the year. Headline inflation was -0.1% for the month and 2.6% for the year. PCE inflation over the last six months was 1.9% which is below the Fed target of 2%.

The second revision to the September quarter GDP growth reverted to 4.9% from the first revision of 5.2%. It should be recalled that the data appeared to be distorted by government infrastructure spending and a possibly unintended build-up in inventories.

Europe 
The Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) are claiming some success in fighting inflation. For both economies, inflation has fallen rapidly. For the European Union (EU), inflation is now only 2.4% and core inflation is 3.6%

We maintain that much of these and other economies success in inflation might be due to the winding back of supply conditions. The long and variable lags effect might bite in 2024.

Rest of the World 
There is much being said and written about the Israel-Gaza conflict. We acknowledge the human tragedy and hope for a speedy resolution.

The Ukraine war with Russia continues with no apparent end in sight. Escalation of either or both of these conflicts presents a level of risk to the global economy.

It is reported that some terrorists based in Yemen have been using drones to intimidate or damage ships passing through the Red Sea in their quest to pass through the Suez Canal. It is said that this behaviour is related to the situation in Israel.

A number of ship owners have said that they will divert ships via the Cape of Good Hope which might add 10 – 15 days in travel time.

In unrelated reports, the Panama Canal has been very affected by drought limiting the traffic in this waterway potentially up to 50% by February.

A reduction in freight volumes through these two iconic waterways are putting renewed supply pressures on freight costs which in turn will feedback into inflationary pressures.

Canada’s latest GDP growth came in at -1.1% and New Zealand’s at -0.6%. The start of the global recession might be underway.

In this month’s update, we provide a snapshot of economic occurrences both nationally and from around the globe.

Key points:

• Australian inflation back in the RBA target range
• The RBA seems to be going it alone for another hike
• US inflation all but back to target
• US jobs data almost signal a recession

We hope you find this month’s Economic Update as informative as always. If you have any feedback or would like to discuss any aspect of this report, please contact your Financial Adviser.

The Big Picture

Our quarterly inflation read published in late October signalled a slight uptick which we addressed last month in our Economic Update. However, that was enough for the RBA to hike its overnight cash rate on Melbourne Cup Day, even though most of the other major central banks seem to be done. The odds for a hike – as priced by the market – were only 50% prior to the meeting.

Michele Bullock, the new RBA governor, inflamed the situation in a recent speech when she all but said we should hike again. Indeed, she singled out dentists and hairdressers, among a handful of services, as significant causes in the little inflation spike in August and September. That call was in our view unwarranted in that such a relatively tiny amount is spent on those two services.

We singled out the crude oil price spike, which has since faded and the depreciation of our currency as major contributors to the recent increase in inflation. Our dollar was appreciating back up to around 66c from under 63c almost as RBA governor Bullock was speaking.

To make matters worse, Philip Lowe, the outgoing RBA governor, fuelled the need to hike more. So, what happened to the monthly inflation read that came out at the end of November?

We calculate inflation (annualised) on a rolling quarterly basis using the monthly data series. Miraculously, the headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) came in at 3.0%, at the top of the RBA’s target range – and not above it. It was also down from the recent peak the month before. The Core variant of inflation that excludes such things as food, fuel and certain vacation spending was higher at 4.4%.

Aussie retail sales in current value terms fell by ?0.2% in October so, after, allowing for inflation and population changes, the retail picture is grim. Sales were up +1.2% for the year or about ?3.7% in volume terms. Population grew at around 2.6% so that is about a ?6.3% decline in volume per capita terms. And the RBA now under Bullock is maintaining a tightening bias which we believe is difficult to support based on our assessment of the available data.

Fortunately, the RBA and governor Bullock appeared to take onboard the view of the market and decided to leave official interest rates on hold at its meeting on December 5^th, now all eyes are focused on the RBAs next interest rate policy setting meeting in February 2024.

In the US, the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) is backing away from hiking again and there is speculation that some Fed members are even talking of cuts soon. In support of this view the US CPI inflation came in at 0.0% for the month; the market loved it. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation which is weighted by what is actually being spent was also flat for the month!

In the space of about a month, the US 10-year Government Bond yield popped above 5% only to end November at around 4.3%. In terms of bond yields, that is a big move and it gave US equities a big boost.

The CME FedWatch tool, which uses bond yields/prices to predict future official interest rate movements, looks to be pricing in one or two interest rate cuts for the US by June next year and maybe four or five by the end of 2024. If the US Fed doesn’t cut interest rates and inflation continues to fall, the so-called real rate (being the difference between the headline yield and inflation) will be driven higher making monetary policy even more restrictive.

The US unemployment rate, released in early November, rose to 3.9% from a recent low of 3.4%. There is a ‘rule’ (the so-called SAHM rule after a former Fed staffer) that says if the (average over three months) rate climbs 0.5% or more above the recent low, that is a strong signal for a recession. The unemployment rate is a small move away triggering that rule.

Other aspects of the US labour report also showed weakness – as did retail sales and the outlook statements from some, but by no means all, US retailers.

Although we believe Australia is already in a ‘per capita’ recession and maybe heading for worse as past rate hikes work their way through the economy, companies’ earnings are not based on per capita consumption. Population growth can support the market through bad times and that is what our data is showing. So, markets can remain positive at times when the economy is weakening!

China even published some quite reasonable economic data during November and a strong China is always good for us. However, the end of November read of the China manufacturing activity index, the PMI, again came in below 50 at 49.4 from 49.5, a reading below 50 indicates contraction. A reading of 49.7 had been expected. However, The Materials sector of the ASX 200 and iron ore prices over November were both very strong countering the impact on the Australian share market of a China slow-down!

We are broadly positive about the share markets going forward into 2024. While bond yields might fall in line with expected changes in monetary policy, though we do not anticipate it is highly unlikely that the US Fed and RBA interest rates will fall to neutral levels (in the range of 2.5%p.a. to 3.0% p.a.). In this environment traditional approaches to portfolio construction which have been disrupted by the historically low interest rates following the Global Financial Crisis will make a return with defensive assets, such as bonds, potentially offsetting the volatility of equity markets and paying a more attractive yield.

Asset Classes

Australian Equities

The ASX 200 had a strong November with gains of 4.5% taking the year-to-date into positive territory at 0.7%.

The Healthcare and Property sectors produced double digit gains over the month. At the other end of the spectrum, gains in Telcos were flat and sharply negative for Utilities.

International Equities

The S&P 500 had an extremely strong month, gaining 8.9% and 19.0% for the year-to-date. The German DAX and the Japanese Nikkei moved roughly in line with the S&P 500 over November but the FTSE was a laggard at 1.8%.

If the Fed starts to cut rates from the first quarter of 2024 as some expect, because inflation is falling and not because the economy is going into recession, we expect a stronger 2024 than otherwise. If a recession becomes apparent, we still expect some positive, but more modest returns. Markets are largely still off their recent all-time highs.

It seems reasonable to attribute some of the strength on Wall Street to long bond yields having settled down at well below 5%.

Bonds and Interest Rates

When we look back on history we may see November 2023 as the beginning of the return to less aggressive monetary policy – except possibly for Australia.

As a result of recent changes in sentiment, the price of US Treasury’s rose sharply forcing yields down. 10-year yields were down by about 0.7% points in November – a massive change indeed. Market indicators are pointing to an end in Fed rate hikes having already been achieved and for a reasonable chance of a cut in the first quarter, followed possibly by another in the second quarter. By the end of 2024, the modal rate is expected to be about a full 1% below the current rate.

The Fed chair is not yet acknowledging this breakthrough in expectations but there are rumours that some Fed members are openly discussing it.

Other Assets

The price of oil dropped sharply in November – around ?6% for WTI and ?5% for Brent. Gold prices rose 2% and copper nearly 4%.

The price of iron ore rose very strongly – at 8% –which helped the Materials sector on the ASX 200 achieve a monthly gain of 5%.

The Australian dollar – against the US dollar – appreciated by 4.8% which will help reduce import prices and, hence, domestic inflation in Australia.

Regional Review

Australia

On the surface, Australian employment growth was strong at +55,000 new jobs in October with the full-time / part-time split being +17,000 / +38,000. However, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.6%.

When the strong population growth arising from immigration is taken into account, some of the shine is taken off these numbers. However, +9 million hours extra were worked in the latest month. That number cancels out the ?9 million from the previous month but still leaves ?8 million hours lost over the last three months – or about 50,000 full-time-equivalent jobs. The mix is changing making it harder to interpret these data.

Retail sales were unequivocally bad. In volume terms they fell ?1.7% over the year or about ?4.3% on a per capita basis.

The wage price index rose 4.0% on the year or just about in line with inflation. CPI went up 4.9% on the year when 5.2% had been expected and down from 5.6% the month earlier. Core CPI rose 5.1% for the year down from 5.5% from the month earlier. Recent data point to sharply lower levels of inflation.

The so-called cost of living crisis is only really a problem if wages do not keep up with price inflation – which they are not. The crisis is real and workers deserve pay rises at least to maintain living standards including catch-up where appropriate. Wage rises are not the culprit. The old enemies of supply-chain, oil prices, currency depreciation and flood damage were the main causes our inflation problem.

China

China’s retail sales bounced back at 7.6% against an expected 7.0% and industrial output rose 4.6% against an expected 4.4%. Not a bad set of numbers but China must address some very real issues in the property sector.

At the end of November, it was reported that there was a surge respiratory cases in China. Hospitals are struggling to cope and masks are back in play but, so far, there are no travel restrictions in place.

It would be devastating if this was the start of another ‘pandemic scale’ crisis but it could just be a typical seasonal health problem on a larger scale.

US

US inflation data released in November beat expectations. CPI inflation was 0.0% for the month or 3.2% for the year against expectations of 0.1% and 3.7%. Core CPI inflation was 0.2% for the month and 4.0% for the year against expectations of 0.3% and 4.1%. While these numbers were not big beats, it appears the psychological 0.0% for the month caused a big sigh of relief. Bond and equity markets rallied strongly. PCE inflation was also flat for the latest month.

On the wholesale front, PPI inflation came in at ?0.5% for the month and 1.3% for the year (against an expected 1.9%). Wages only grew modestly at 0.2% for the month. If this were a political election, we think inflation would have declared defeat.

150,000 new jobs were created which was well down on last month and expectations. On top of that, the composition of jobs created was skewed towards sectors that are not part of the growth economy. The unemployment rate at 3.9% is now 0.5% points above the recent minimum.

Europe

The BoE was on hold and its inflation rate dropped to 4.6%, a two-year low, from 6.7% in the prior month. Inflation was only 0.1% for the month! However, retail sales volume was down ?0.3% for the month of October.

The UK government announced several stimulus initiatives in the November budget. These stimuli will fight against the inflation story but are most needed to redress the pain that many households have suffered in the last few years.

EU growth was negative in the latest quarter – as was that for Germany. EU inflation was down sharply from 4.3% to 2.9% for the headline rate. The core rate, at 4.2% was down from 4.5%.

Rest of the World

Thankfully a cease-fire in the Gaza-Israel conflict allowed a number of hostages and prisoners to be exchanged and essential supplies to be trucked in by the UN. The Ukraine-Russia conflict still seems nowhere near resolution. Neither conflict appears to be having a major negative influence on markets.

Turkey predicted 2023 inflation to be 65% falling to 36% in 2024. It puts our inflation problem into perspective!

Seasons Greetings

As this is our last economic update for calendar year 2023, we would take this opportunity to thank you for your many comments, feedback and discussion over the year. From all in the Research and Investment team, we hope you and your families have a very happy, healthy and safe Christmas and New Year.

We look forward to returning in 2024 to continue our observation and commentary on what is a very interesting period.

In this month’s update, we provide a snapshot of economic occurrences both nationally and from around the globe.

Key points:
– The new RBA Governor, Michelle Bullock, increases the RBA Cash rate to 4.35%
– US Fed chooses not to increase the US Cash rate as data indicates some economic softening
– European and UK central banks hold interest rates steady as inflation and growth both ease

We hope you find this month’s Economic Update as informative as always. If you have any feedback or would like to discuss any aspect of this report, please contact the team.

The Big Picture

We entered October with an air of positive expectancy about the outcome at the Melbourne Cup Day RBA Board meeting. Earlier in November, the market was flirting with a 14% chance of a possible rate cut in October. A cut did not eventuate and, by mid-October, the mood had shifted to being on hold with only a slight chance of a hike in November. On the back of the latest inflation read in late October, the odds turned the mood swiftly to a 50:50 split between the chance of a pause or a 0.25% interest rate rise according to the RBA Rate Tracker tool on the ASX website.

There is no doubt that the quarterly CPI read did jump from a modest 0.8% for the June quarter to 1.2% for the latest quarter resulting in a reading of 5.4% for the latest 12 months.

It is of extreme importance to recall that oil prices rose from just $72 / barrel earlier in the year to $97 largely based on supply changes orchestrated by OPEC+. That input-price-inflation ‘passed through’ to automotive fuel prices around the globe.

Oil prices swiftly fell to $84 in October before retracing to $87 by the end of the month. The fall was too late for the latest month or quarter’s inflation being measured. OPEC+ does not respond to RBA interest rates and it would be foolish to try to quell that component in the CPI with a rate hike in November.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) also produces a monthly CPI series, albeit based on a slightly narrower coverage of goods and services. Our analysis of that data shows that the monthly CPI data peaked in August at 6.4% (following a succession of readings in the target range) before retreating to 5.8% for September – both months being within the September quarter.

It is most probably the case that several factors are at work in affecting our CPI inflation. Our $A depreciated from about $US0.70 to below $US0.63 over 2023. Such a depreciation causes import prices of many goods and services to rise. In response, CPI inflation is likely to have increased. Of course, oil prices, supply-chain disruptions and the rest are also in the mix.

It is difficult to point to the precise factors that caused the depreciation of our dollar but weakness in the China economy and rate movements in the US and here are likely to have been important. However, it is doubtful if a 0.25% increase in the RBA cash interest rate would redress a significant part of the depreciation.

Dr Luci Ellis, who only recently left the hierarchy of the RBA to become chief economist at Westpac, has been arguing that a rate hike is likely in November.

While Australia appears to be moving towards a renewed rate-hiking policy, the US has moved in the opposite direction. The November 1st Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting had been thought to be leaning towards a pause but with a significant chance of a hike. However, by the time of the meeting markets were pricing in a 1.6% chance of a rate cut and a 0% chance of a hike hence the overwhelming expectation was for a pause, which is what was announced. At the time of writing, the fixed intertest market, as assessed through the CME Fedwatch tool, still has a 10% chance that the Fed could increase the cash interest rate again at its December 13th meeting. That said, what we have observed in past months is that the CME FedWatch tool varies in a wide range for the probabilities appended to the Feds next interest rate move and are very data dependent.

Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) all kept their respective cash rates ‘on hold’ at their last meetings.

There is little doubt that the Australian economy is weaking: we have experienced two consecutive quarters of negative growth when expressed on a per capita basis; and the last three quarters of retail sales growth, when adjusted for inflation, have been negative. The last jobs report showed only 6,700 new jobs but there was an accompanying fall of 39,900 full-time jobs with the difference made up from new part-time jobs (replacing the full-time?). Eight million hours of work were reported as lost in the latest month (September) and nine million hours were lost in the month before. Those lost hours each equate to around 50,000 lost full-time jobs.

It is true that our unemployment rate is historically low at 3.6% – as is that of the US at 3.9%. In a revealing announcement at the end of October, Britain has abandoned its data collection survey method to compute unemployment because, reportedly, millennials and generation Z are reluctant to answer their phones, which impacts on the accuracy of the report!

Are US and Australian data also similarly affected? We do not know but serious questions about labour force data should be asked given how critical the assessment of the structure of the labour force is in the formation of both monetary (RBA) and fiscal (government) policy. There may well need to be changes in either the calculation of the rate or its interpretation following the social upheaval of the pandemic. When there are so many other signals of a weakening economy, it would be foolish to rely on a single part of the economy to guide the direction of monetary policy.

The US, however, reported an extremely strong labour market – at least at first glance. Two separate sources said the 336,000 new jobs reported in September – compared to an expected range of 90,000 to 250,000 – did not reflect that most of the new jobs were for lower paid, part-time positions. The sources proffered that it was more likely that these jobs were for second jobs to cope with the cost-of-living crisis rather than as an indicator of a strong market.

Some cite that there is ‘a strong US consumer’, particularly after the block-buster GDP growth of 4.9% for Q3. However, retail sales over the year – after adjusting for inflation – were flat. Recent data have been unduly affected by Covid related stimulus payments and people living off accumulated excess household savings.

The three-year US student debt forgiveness programme has just ended and excess savings are reportedly all but exhausted. So, from now on we will get to see how the economy fares when consumers now need to fund their lifestyles from their current earnings.

The savings ratio in the latest quarter fell from 5.2% to a low 3.8%. Households are saving less per quarter than their historical average which does not bode well for the future.

Because most US home mortgages have fixed interest rates for 30 years, many have not yet been affected by recent rate rises – unless they chose to, or needed to, move home. Many were smart enough to have locked in low rates for their fixed rate mortgages during the pandemic years.

The US 30-year fixed term mortgage rate just exceeded 8% – the highest since the year 2000 after climbing from a recent low of about 4% during the pandemic. That’s about double the interest repayments so it will obviously affect decisions of many to move. However, when rates do fall, people borrowing at 8% can typically refinance at the lower rate without penalty. The US is different from Australia in so many ways.

In mid-2023, many were calling no US recession – or, at most, a mild one. The majority now seem to be accepting of the notion that the US is heading towards a recession of some degree. But there is hope that any recession would be short-lived, providing that the Fed reacts quickly.

The third quarter US company earnings’ reporting season is now underway and many companies have posted strong earnings and have positive views of their earnings prospects in the quarters to come. With share markets having retreated substantially (of the order of 2% to 8% since the end of June) having bounced back from correction territory for some, markets could rally quickly if the central banks soon choose to make statements of likely cuts to interest rates to support their flagging economies.

Interest rate cuts are being priced into the US Fed funds rate in the first half of 2024 as assessed by the CME Fedwatch tool. Some central bankers, with the ‘higher for longer’ mantra, are still talking of no cuts in 2024 or even 2025. We find it difficult to see that happening.

While there has rightfully been much attention on equity markets, bond markets require some serious consideration. The yield of the US 10-year Government bond broke through 5% in the second half of October – the highest since 2007. When the price of a Bond falls the yield rises, and the longer the maturity of the bond, the larger the price impact. The mounting problem with the US is that the appetite to hold US debt was waned in recent times. Some bond auctions held by the US Treasury have not gone as well as expected which has caused some instability/volatility in the US bond market. In the long run, the US will have to address its significant level of Government debt.

As bond yields go up, they become more attractive – especially if they are held to maturity. Higher yields typically have a depressing impact on equity returns because the alternative to holding equities becomes more appealing as a result the relative attractiveness of equities declines

Of course, the Israel-Gaza conflict could adversely affect markets if the conflict escalates across the Middle East and beyond. From an economic perspective the risk to global oil supplies is particularly high.

Asset Classes

Australian Equities 

The ASX 200 had another bad month at -3.8% following the -3.2% it fell in September. Much of the action seemed to flow from volatile bond yields in the US and swirling news about interest rate increases or the changes in the likelihood of interest rate increases. Of course, the Israel-Gaza conflict cannot be ruled out as a source of angst in markets but news from the Ukraine seems now to be more muted.

If it were not for the materials and utilities sectors, the ASX 200 would have been in much worse shape in October.

While a rally into Christmas is still possible, it seems doubtful unless there is good news coming from the RBA or US Fed. So far this year, the ASX 200 index is down -3.7% but LSEG (formerly Refinitiv, which was formerly Thomson Reuters) forecasts for earnings growth are quite positive with an above-average year ahead. Indeed, our analysis of these data show that the prospects for the following 12 months has risen from 3.6% at the beginning of 2023, to 9.0% today.

International Equities 

The S&P 500 was down by slightly more than the ASX 200. However, its performance-to-date over 2023 is well up at +9.2%.

There have been some spectacular winners and losers in the Q3 reporting season – particularly among the so-called ‘magnificent 7’ mega-cap tech stocks.

There are many stocks – including some of the magnificent 7 – that may be largely unaffected by any recession in the US however, regulation is more of an issue with some of these companies.

Bonds and Interest Rates

We found it particularly interesting that the Fed suddenly came out ‘dovish’ (more likely to be supportive of the economy than inflation fighting hence more likely to be easier with monetary policy implementation) the day before the FOMC minutes (from a meeting two weeks prior) landed on the news wires with a distinctly ‘hawkish’ (opposite of dovish) tone.

Europe’s ECB, too, has suddenly taken a more dovish tone with their monetary policy settings being ‘on hold’ in October.

Australia is the odd-man-out in the change of direction of central bank policy settings. The new Governor, Michelle Bullock, at her first real test, has increased the RBA Cash rate to 4.35%. Despite the market being evenly divided between her pausing or raising the Cash rate, she has determined to increase the rate on the basis that, at its current trajectory, inflation would not return to the target level ‘within a reasonable timeframe’ hence the need for her to ‘use the whip’ on Melbourne Cup Day.

Other Assets 

The price of oil and copper were down in October, iron ore was flat but gold prices – owing to heightened degree of uncertainty – strengthened. Unsurprisingly, the VIX (a measure of US equity market volatility) rose. The $A against the greenback lost -1.7%.

Regional Review

Australia

We raised concerns last month about the state of the Australian labour market in part because most of the new jobs were for part-time positions. This month we find that trend is even more pronounced. 39,900 full-time jobs were lost and 46,500 part-time jobs were created leaving a positive balance of +6,700 total jobs. That is not really a positive swap! Eight million hours of work were lost – a similar amount to the previous month.

The Westpac consumer sentiment index remained well into the pessimistic zone (below 100) at 82. That level is like that found in previous recessions. The NAB business confidence and conditions indexes hovered just into the optimistic zone.

Retail sales – unadjusted for inflation – were up 0.9% for the latest month or 2.0% for the year which was well behind inflation for the year at 5.4%. Therefore, in CPI-adjusted terms, retail sales went backwards by -3.4% in the last 12 months. That the 0.9% reading was above the expected 0.3% is cold comfort for the state of the consumer.

The last four quarters of CPI inflation over the corresponding period in the previous year were 7.8%, 7.0%, 6.0% and now 5.4%. It is encouraging that inflation has been steadily falling but not at a fast-enough pace for many and new RBA Governor Michelle Bullock who increase the RBA cash rate to 4.35% on Melbourne Cup Day.

Our calculations based on the monthly CPI data series on rolling quarters (annualised) for the last three months have been 3.1%, 6.5% and 5.8% (for September). The spike can largely be attributed to auto fuel price inflation but other categories did stand out too. The core inflation data, that strips out auto fuel, fruit and vegetables, and holiday travel using the same methodology produced 4.8%, 5.2% and 5.5% for the last three months. The trend prior to that sequence seemed comfortably heading soon to the 2% to 3% target range.

Core inflation does not strip out auto fuel for that part of it which is used as inputs to other sectors. Electricity was up 18.0% on the year while gas and other household fuels were up 12.7%. Rents were up 7.6% possibly due to rate increases! The Cup Day rate rise will not help bring down inflation in these sectors.

With oil prices having pulled back from their peaks, and if the Gaza conflict does not escalate to result in major oil shortages, there is the prospect of a return to the previous trend of a fall in inflation rates.

China 

China’s PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) for manufacturing returned to above the ‘expansionary’ measure of 50 for the first time in four months.

China GDP surprised the market with a reading of 4.9% when only 4.5% had been expected.

Woes in the property market continue and some significant defaults on property developer bond repayments were reported.

US

US CPI inflation statistics came in a little above expectations at 0.4% for the month and 3.7% for the year. The core variant was 0.3% for the month.

The Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditure ‘PCE’ measure came in at 0.4% for the month and 3.4% for the year. The core variant was 0.3% for the month and 3.7% for the year.

Despite the stubbornness of inflation to return quickly to the target 2%, increasing fears of a recession are causing the market and the Fed to pull back a little from expecting interest rate hikes.

Retail sales came in at 3.8% for the year which is only just above the inflation rate of 3.7%. In ‘real terms’ sales have been static. Industrial output did beat expectations with a growth of 0.3% against an expected 0.1% in the latest month.

The non-farm payrolls (jobs) data massively beat expectations. There were 336,000 new jobs created against an expected range of 90,000 to 250,000. However, it has been reported that most of these jobs were part-time positions and of lower pay than average. Some observers believe that the apparent resilience in non-farm payrolls more likely indicates people needing to get a second job to supplement their earnings in the face of the cost-of-living crisis rather than the strength of the US economy.

The unemployment rate was marginally above expectations at 3.8% and wage increases were up 4.3%.

There are early signs that the US Auto Workers Union is coming to an agreement with two of the three auto manufacturers.
The House of Representatives finally appointed a Speaker of the House of Representatives – at the fourth attempt. The next deadline of the US debt ceiling vote might now be averted on November 17th.

US GDP growth came in very high – as expected – at 4.9% (annualised) for the September quarter but the household savings ratio fell to 3.8% from 5.2%. A portion of this economic activity was due to government infrastructure spending and a big build-up in inventories. It is not yet clear whether the build-up in inventories is in anticipation of future demand or failure to sell as much as expected in the September quarter. Based on the more dovish attitude of the Fed recently it may be the latter.

Europe 

The BoE, ECB and SNB paused their tightening cycles. House prices in Britain – adjusted for inflation – have fallen 13.4% from their peak.

Germany’s GDP growth came in at -0.1% for the September quarter. German inflation fell to 3.0% in October – the lowest since August 2021.

EU growth was also  0.1% and its inflation rate of 2.9% was well down on the previous estimate of 4.3% Core inflation in the eurozone was 4.2%, down from 4.5%.

Rest of the World 

Japan’s CPI inflation came in at 3.0% while its core variant was 2.7% against an expected 2.8%.

The anticipated Bank of Japan shake up on rates had little impact. The prime interest rate stays at -0.1% and the change to the Yield Curve Control (YCC) for longer dated Japanese government bonds was minor.

The Israel-Gaza conflict remains a human tragedy with the prospect of the conflict escalating to involve other forces remaining a real threat to the region and potentially to oil prices.

In this month’s update, we provide a snapshot of economic occurrences both nationally and from around the globe.

Key points:

• US Fed pauses interest rates in September but upsets markets with hawkishness commentary
• US economic data remains positive but further analysis indicates conditions are softening
• GDP data for Australia is showing mild growth but on a per capita basis we are in recession

We hope you find this month’s Economic Update as informative as always. If you have any feedback or would like to discuss any aspect of this report, please contact your Financial Adviser.

The Big Picture

So much data is released every month that it is nearly always possible to find a justification for a ‘good’ or ‘bad’ forecast/outlook, depending on one’s view or motivation. The responsibility of macroeconomic analysts is to deploy skill in their analysis and be able to step back and synthesise the information to present a cogent and balanced view.

We agree that both the US and Australian economies can currently be viewed through an optimistic lens. But we see some cracks beneath the surface getting bigger. The lion’s share of responsibility for managing the many stresses and forces operating in the global and national economies falls in no small part to governments and in particular, central banks.

At time of writing, this turns on how central banks increase their interest rate settings to hopefully return inflation to an acceptable range without causing economic growth to slow to the point where a deep economic recession is inevitable. In our view, the now restrictive interest rate policies have done the job and it is time for central banks to acknowledge the lagged effects of high interest rates, in order to ensure that economies do not unduly succumb.

A key economic measure/indicator is employment. At the start of September, US jobs data were seen by many as holding up while inflation data were showing some impressive gains i.e. falling. As a result, almost everyone expected the Fed to keep rates on hold at its 20 September 2023 meeting – and it did. Therefore, the immediate stock market reaction was positive – until the Fed chairman’s press conference which started half an hour later.

During that question time, the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, became increasingly hawkish – meaning that he was leaning towards more interest rate hikes, or, at least, the current hikes being held ‘higher for longer’. As a result, September proved to be a bad month for equity markets.

Our take on the US jobs data is that it went against the superficial media coverage. 170,000 jobs had been expected and 187,000 jobs were created. The unemployment rate was 3.8% and wages rose by 4.3% against an expected 4.4%. We can see why a cursory glance might lead one to view that the US labour market was strong.

What we also read was that the previous two months jobs’ data were revised down by 110,000 and that most of the jobs created in the latest month were in two non-growth sectors: health care & social assistance, and government. However, jobs in many of the important building blocks of growth went backwards by -28,300, which was a clear deterioration from prior months.

When viewed through that lens, interest rates may have been (and potentially should have been) cut in September! And 3.8% for an unemployment rate is a big kick up from the expectation of 3.5%. Some say a 0.5% increase in the unemployment rate is a sign of a slowdown.

US GDP data came in after the Fed meeting and showed that growth in the June quarter, at its customary second monthly revision each quarter, held steady at 2.1%. We can see how that could also be construed as good. The Fed thinks anything above 1.8% causes upward pressure on inflation and the like. But consumption, the big driver of the US economy (circa 67% of GDP growth), was revised downwards from an initial 1.7% to an unimpressive 0.8%, and that is an annual figure. That is unequivocally not good!

So how did GDP growth hold up then? It transpires that business investment was revised upwards and it compensated for the loss in consumption. That investment was fuelled by Biden’s push to onshore semiconductor production after the pandemic/ shutdown/China situation from 2020 to 2022. There is an old saying, ‘Never fight the Fed’. It seems the government is fighting the Fed and that in part explains why temporarily the economy is holding up a bit longer than some expected. Monetary and fiscal policy work better in unison.

And other headwinds are gathering in the US. It was reported that US consumers had accumulated $2.1 trillion in ‘excess savings’ from government Covid-related cheques and personal savings back in 2021. Those savings had dwindled to $190 billion by June and was thought now almost gone except the GDP report also suggests they found a little bit more savings in the revision. Consumers have been partly living off excess savings for two or three years and that well has almost run dry.

The market still thinks the Fed might not hike rates again this year – pricing in about a 35% chance of another hike – and cuts could start as early as the first half of 2024.

However, the Fed published its dot plots last meeting – a brilliant graphic to show what all the members (voting and non-voting) think the Fed rate will be at each of the end of this and the next few years. Since the dots are not attributed to each member, and not all members vote, it is not trivial to interpret the expectations of the voting Fed.

Since there are only two meetings to go this year (1 November and 13 December) there was reasonable cohesion among the Fed members (12 for a hike and 7 for on hold) for the end of 2023. For 2024 and beyond the dots are dispersed widely. Two members expect a higher rate in 2024 than now (1 or 3 hikes from here); 4 the same as now; and the rest for up to four cuts from here (or five if they hike again this year).

Given that there are accepted to be long and variable lags following interest rate changes before effect, knowing that they will need to cut quite a few times soon, it makes little sense to put in another hike to then try and cancel it quickly.

Here in Australia, the RBA looks more likely to be ‘done’ and interest rate cuts could start soon. Our CPI monthly inflation data were within the RBA’s target range for three consecutive months but petrol/fuel inflation burst the bubble in the latest month.

Our initial GDP data were released for the June quarter and, again at first sight, they looked fine. Growth was 0.4% for the quarter (not annualised) and 2.1% for the year. However, when our material immigration flow is accounted for, growth per capita was -0.3% for the June quarter following -0.3% for the previous quarter. We were in a per capita recession during the first half of 2023. On average, we were going backwards!

The September quarter has now finished but it will be nearly three months before we find out whether the ‘going backwards’ continued. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is pulling no punches. It forecasts we (Australia) will be in a per capita recession for two years (2023 and 2024). So, the OECD assessment adds further weight to the argument for the RBA to not raise interest rates further and to be contemplating cutting rates sooner rather than later.

The Bank of England (BoE) has surprised in the opposite direction. It was widely expected to hike again this month but it didn’t. The BoE hinted that the inflation data released the day before turned its hand. For the record, the UK headline CPI came in at 6.7% down from 6.8% the month before and the core variant that strips out volatile items came in at 6.2% down from 6.9%. No matter which variant you use, US inflation is around 4% or better and they are talking about hiking. Clearly there is significant divergence between how various central banks choose to implement monetary policy and their strong reliance and dependency on data.

China is the real mystery in all of this. Of course, their economy is not hitting the higher growth rates of years gone by. That is the fate of all maturing economies. What is 5% growth now amounts to about the same extra output as 10% growth when China was half the size (not so long ago). The problem is to do with what is going on with property and property developers. There have been defaults and possibly more to come. But the third quinquennium (Chinese long-term economic plan) is just around the corner. Every five years China has a big conference and announces new policies and possibly stimulus. Perhaps during October, we will have a stronger picture to paint for our major trading partner!

Asset Classes

Australian Equities

The ASX 200 fell -3.5% in September in part due to the hawkish comments made by the US Fed and concerns over property in China. Energy (+1.3%) was the only one of the 11 sectors to make gains. Property (-8.7%) and IT (-8.0%) took by far the biggest tumbles.

For the nine months to the end of September, the ASX 200 is up by only +0.1%; the IT sector is up +22.5% and consumer discretionary by +12.2%.

When dividends are included (but not franking credits) the ASX 200 is up +3.7% for the nine months.

We still have consensus earnings forecasts, sourced from Refinitiv, pointing to a solid end to the year and the market is modestly under-priced by our assessment.

International Equities

The S&P 500 was also down by -4.9% over September. In contrast, the London FTSE was up +2.3% but all the other major indices we follow fell by a similar quantum to the ASX 200 and S&P 500 for the month.

Over the year-to-date, the Japanese Nikkei has rocketed ahead by +22.1%; the S&P 500 (+11.7%) and the DAX (+10.5%) have made creditable gains. The other major indices are more or less flat over 2023 to date but, at least, showing small positive gains.

Bonds and Interest Rates

The Fed did not raise interest rates at their 20 September 2023 meeting but the chair, Jerome Powell, made a hawkish statement in the press conference that followed. The Fed dot plots chart, showing participants forecasts for the US cash interest rate for the end of this year and several following, show a broad divergence in opinion.

More members than not saw another hike in rates this year with the CME Fedwatch tool which measures the Feds interest rate changes that are implied by movements in the bond market, show only modest support for that view.

The US Government bond market has experienced some volatility with the 10-year bond yield closing at 4.57% being markedly ahead of the 4.10% at the end of August.

The RBA now has a new governor, Michele Bullock, and she has not ushered in a rate hike at her first meeting, especially as the market had not pricing one in. Indeed, the market had priced in a small chance of a cut!

We consider Australian inflation largely under control with some doubts about the strength of the economy. We are in a per capita recession and chinks are appearing in the labour market which until recently has proven to be quite resilient.

The Bank of England kept its interest rates on hold in September despite a market prediction of an increase and inflation coming in at over 6%.

The European Central Bank (ECB), Norway, and Sweden all raised their official cash rate by 0.25% and hinted at the prospect of more to come. Switzerland’s central bank held rates steady instead of increasing them, the first pause since March 2022.

Japan is still maintaining its negative interest rate of -0.1% although there is growing commentary about the need for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to change its stance. Japan’s latest GDP growth is 4.8% (after a revision from 6.0%) and inflation is running at just over 3%.

Other Assets

The price of oil was up by nearly 10% in September following OPEC+ (essentially Saudia Arabia plus Russia) supply cuts.

The price of iron ore rose 2.1%. The prices of copper (-2.8%) and gold (-4.4%) were both weaker. The Australian Dollar depreciated fractionally (-0.4%) against the US Dollar over September.

The VIX (US Share market) volatility index rose to 17.7 at the end of September after being in the normal range (at around 13) for some time.
Regional Review

Australia

CPI inflation came in at 5.2% (for the year) from 4.9% the month before. Core inflation was reported to be 5.5% and down from the previous month of 5.8%. We also compute a quarterly (annualised) inflation rate to follow new trends in a timely fashion.

Our headline quarterly inflation rate was in the RBA’s target range (2% to 3%) for three consecutive months but then a massive increase in petrol/fuel prices in August took that measure to 6.4%. The core equivalent quarterly rate was falling steadily into June and close to the RBA’s target but drifted a little higher in the latest two months possibly on the back of a depreciating Australian dollar which makes imports more expensive.

GDP growth came in at 0.4% for the June quarter and 2.1% for the year. However, when population growth is taken into account, per capita GDP shrank by -0.3% in the June quarter following on from a -0.3% fall in the March quarter.

Although the definition of a recession in this country is usually ascribed in terms of GDP, and not per capita GDP, we cannot ignore that, on average, the Australian economy in a viable metric (per capital GDP) has been going backwards and the OECD predicts that behaviour to continue into 2024.

The household savings ratio fell modestly from 3.6% to 3.2% in the June quarter but this ratio is well below ‘normal’ levels. It seems unlikely that saving will fall much more making it less likely for consumption to maintain current levels unless consumers increasingly use debt facilities.

The ‘mortgage cliff’ is almost on our doorstep when hundreds of thousands of mortgages previously fixed on low interest rates in the unusually low interest rate era will need to be rolled over to interest rates significantly higher. However, data from Domain.com suggest that stress in the form of ‘forced sales’ has been falling after a very recent peak. Hopefully the worst of that sort of stress has passed.

At first sight, the latest jobs report seemed promising with 64,900 jobs created – about three times what would normally be considered good. However, only 2,800 of these were for full-time work – the rest being for part-time work. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7% but the number of hours worked fell by 9 million. That loss is equivalent to losing about 60,000 full-time jobs, which is further evidence that the labour market is weakening.

Unsurprisingly, therefore, the Westpac MI consumer sentiment index fell to 79.7 (with 100 being the breakeven point between optimism and pessimism). The index has been around 80 for several months; this level is usually associated with a recession or at least a serious downturn. Business sentiment indices from NAB, however, were more positive. Both the confidence and conditions measures were marginally up and in positive territory.

China

China holds a major government conference, the quinquennium, every five years to realign policies and, possibly announce new stimulus. It is due to start on 16 October 2023.

There have been many reported problems within China’s property sector including the massive Country Garden failing to pay coupon payments on some of its debt securities on time. Other data have been more encouraging.

Retail sales were up 4.6% against an expectation of 3.0% and industrial output was up 4.5% against an expected 3.5%.

China is reviewing some of the tariffs applied to imports from Australia imposed in 2020 and several of them have already been lowered or removed.

US

US inflation statistics continued to improve. Indeed, the monthly rate of the Fed’s preferred ‘core PCE variant’ came in at 0.1% which is below the Fed target of 2% pa. That measure rose 3.9% over the year. Headline PCE inflation rose 0.4% for the month and 3.5% for the year.

US CPI headline inflation rose 0.6% for the month and 3.7% for the year. The core variant rose 0.2% for the month and 4.3% for the year.

In our view US inflation is nearly there but, if the Fed holds interest rates higher for longer, there is a big danger of overshooting i.e. a recession ensues due to restrictive interest rate policy settings.

The headline jobs number was good but, as our preceding analysis shows, there are cracks appearing as the composition of the numbers shows employment growth is occurring in government and care sectors which are less positive for economic growth.

Europe

The Bank of England (BoE) paused its interest rate tightening cycle. CPI inflation fell to 6.7% from 6.8% (over the year). Core inflation fell to 6.2% from 6.9%.

On the other hand, the ECB hiked 25 bps to 4.0%.

Rest of the World

The New Zealand economy bounced back with 0.9% growth for the latest quarter and 1.8% for the year. Only 1.2% growth had been expected.