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Economic Update May 2022

In this month’s update, we provide a snapshot of economic occurrences both nationally and from around the globe.

Key points:

– US Fed talks of bigger and quicker rate increases than recently anticipated
– US growth surprised on the downside with the economy actually contracting in the March quarter of 2022
– Australian inflation rises strongly on the back of fuel prices and construction costs

We hope you find this month’s Economic Update as informative as always. If you have any feedback or would like to discuss any aspect of this report, please contact our team.
The Big Picture

Just when it seemed that the markets had settled down after an updated rate hiking strategy from the US Federal Reserve (“Fed”), Fed chair Jerome Powell spooked markets with a strong statement about “front loading” the hiking process i.e. more rate rises earlier in the cycle.

Markets had already priced in a double hike (0.50%) for May 4 but the idea of front loading brought forward further double hike expectations. The market is now expecting a Fed funds rate of 2.75% by the end of 2022 from the current 0.25% to 0.5%.

We think the initial savage sell-off in late April was uncalled for. Perhaps that’s partly why the market bounced back sharply in the close to April – egged on by some splendid big tech earnings’ reports – until Amazon missed expectations and the markets tanked on the last day of the month.

What makes it harder to disentangle the forces that are currently driving markets is that the bounce back started on the release of a US economic growth rate of  1.4% (annualised) for the March quarter of 2022. Economists had expected +1.0% so this figure was a big miss. However, most dismissed the negative read as “noise” and not a “signal”.

The three usual suspects of the pandemic, inflation and the Ukraine invasion complicated the analysis. There was a record US trade imbalance as the post pandemic world tries to get back into shape. The Fed’s preferred “core Private Consumption Expenditure” (PCE) inflation read that strips out volatile energy and food prices was a substantial 5.2% – well above the Fed’s target rate of 2%.

Australia also posted an inflation read in the last week of April. The quarterly rate was 2.1% (not annualised) making for an annual rate of 5.1%. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (“RBA”) target range is 2% to 3%. Before the last few quarters, inflation had been below 3% for about a decade. For about six years of that decade inflation had struggled below the RBA’s target range.

Some economists are clamouring for the RBA to hike rates aggressively to control inflation. This strategy is not without some risk. In the latest quarter, the price of automotive fuel rose by 11.0%. That increase is due to the supply effects emanating mainly from the Russian invasion of the Ukraine in the March quarter. A rate hike in Australia cannot have any meaningful impact on such a supply constraint occuring on the other side of the world.

Skyrocketing fuel prices are an important input cost component for most business. When the RBA, or the Fed, tries to strip out volatile energy and fuel prices it cannot isolate business input costs from the impact of higher fuel prices so volatile items do feed into the ‘core inflation measure. As a result, core inflation and the RBA’s “trimmed mean” inflation are over-estimates of underlying inflation when all energy cost are stripped out.

Similarly, the pressure on prices of soft commodities such as wheat caused by the Ukraine invasion pervade not just the obvious grocery price increases but also restaurants, cafes and take-aways amongst other businesses.

The RBA’s trimmed mean measure of inflation was only 3.7% which is only just above the target range – and that is without stripping out the indirect impact of the Russian invasion.

The RBA rate is very low and the Fed has only just made a very modest start to increase its rate. There is plenty of room for both countries’ rates to rise without causing growth problems. When rates are below the so-called neutral rate (of around 2.5%) rate hikes do not really equate to policy tightening. Rather such hikes equate to “less slackening”.

The fear some have is that the US – and/or Australia – could cause a recession by increasing interest rates too far and/or too quickly. We – like many others – are yet to be convinced that the latest negative read in US growth will lead to a recession. However, an unnecessarily aggressive set of rate hikes – to even below the neutral rate – could frighten equity markets and, in turn, impact the real economy through a wealth effect. We currently do not think that measured interest rate hikes should hurt the economy.

The IMF posted its updated 2022 growth forecasts for the world and major countries in the last week of April. World growth expectations were downgraded to 3.6% with Australia at 4.2% and the US at 3.7%. The IMF sees strong growth here and the US for 2022 and not a recession!

There is no doubt that consumers are hurt by high inflation even if it is sourced from volatile food and energy prices resulting from geopolitical, as opposed to macroeconomic, events. Increasing rates might even compound the problem by forcing up mortgage payments which in turn puts downward pressure on property prices, erodes the wealth effect resulting in slowing consumption and economic growth.

Labour markets are strong in the US and Australia. Both countries posted strong jobs growth and low unemployment rates. There is some evidence that big companies like Amazon are fiercely competing for labour – particularly as it is mooted that its labour force might become unionised. Wages seem set to rise in the US but there is little to support that notion in Australia just yet.

While it is true that some big US tech companies’ share prices were slashed on their Q1 earnings’ reports – particularly Netflix and Amazon – there were many more strong statements – notably Meta (formerly known as Facebook). We track earnings expectations collected by Refinitiv and we note that earnings remain broadly healthy enough to be supportive of valuations well into the second half of 2022 – notwithstanding markets will experience bouts of elevated volatility through this period. Similarly, the ASX 200 has earnings support from its leading companies.

China posted a strong 4.8% economic growth rate for the March quarter of 2022. However, the economy is being held back by its Covid Zero policy. Shanghai, in particular, is in virtual lockdown which contributes to the supply-chain problems that are partly causing high global inflation.

The invasion of the Ukraine by Russia seems to be taking a turn. Russia seems to be narrowing its interest to just annexing the coastal land-bridge near Crimea. But the rhetoric from Putin is just as strong and he is speaking of not wanting a diplomatic solution. President Biden is asking Congress to appropriate $US33 bn in aid for Ukraine of which $US20 bn is for armaments.
Asset Classes
Australian Equities 

The ASX 200 has come through the year-to-date relatively unscathed experiencing a minor decline of at  0.1%, a strong result given the Ukraine invasion, the Fed’s new hiking policy and the continuing pandemic. Capital gains, while modestly negative over the month were quite well contained at  0.9%.

The Energy and Materials sectors have had a strong year-to-date which has provided good support for the Australian share index. The Energy sector is up 28.1% and Materials up 7.0%. Much of this strength is due to strong commodity prices and China’s demand.

Despite the heightened volatility in the index, the broker-based forecasts of company earnings surveyed by Refinitiv have remained strong over the month and year-to-date. When, or if, the major impediments to normal volatility subside, earnings expectations should return to be a dominant force in the share price discovery process.

International Equities 

The S&P 500 is ‘officially’ in correction territory having fallen  13.3% over the year-to-date. April ( 8.8%) turned out to be particularly bad for Wall Street having stock prices buffeted by a handful of spectacular ‘misses’ on earnings and outlook from big tech companies Netflix and Amazon performed particularly poorly but Meta was a big outperformer. Most companies had a strong report for the March quarter but sentiment seems to have been buffeted by some ‘tech darlings’ suddenly underperforming. Our analysis of Refinitiv’s broker forecasts remains positive over the next 12 months.

London’s FTSE was slightly positive for the month but most other major markets had a poor April. But the US is still a standout in this comparison. Wall Street has boomed on the performance of big tech and some of those lofty expectations have rationalised recently as investor expectations have become more grounded.

Bonds and Interest Rates

After the 0.25% increase in the Fed funds rate in March, expectations of a double hike of 0.5% in May (99.6% probability from the CME Fedwatch calculator) and possibly in subsequent months has increased markedly. The interest rates for US 10-year Treasuries climbed to almost 3% later in April. Our 10-year government bonds now yield in excess of 3%.

There is now some slight justification for the RBA to start its interest rate-hiking cycle. However, at time of writing we think that the governor, Dr Philip Lowe, is unlikely to get too aggressive in this regard.

Other Assets 

The prices of a number of commodities pulled back a little in April after a surge in the March quarter of 2022. Oil prices are, however, still above $US100 / barrel and iron ore is hovering around $US140 / tonne.

If oil prices remain high but do not increase further, that will bring energy price inflation down and not then contribute so significantly to the various consumer inflation statistics going forward.

This year the $A against the US dollar rose from just above 70 cents to over 76 cents and then back to 71.5 cents in recent weeks, yet another indication of heightened volatility and uncertainty in markets currently.
Regional Review
Australia

Australia will hold its federal election on May 21. Earlier this year, Labour was starting to look like it was its election to lose but things have changed. A few blunders and the usual in-fighting have made the outcome less certain. Some are seeing the possibility of a hung parliament.

Meanwhile, the economy looks reasonably strong. The unemployment rate is down to an historically low 4.0% after another 17,900 jobs were added in the latest month. The main question around economic growth relates to one’s belief in how fast the RBA might raise rates. The first hike from the historically low 0.1% to 0.25% or possibly 0.5% would be benign for growth. It is more a question of what the RBA would do after that.

The latest quarterly inflation rate comprised some big increases to some components e.g.  automotive fuel prices 11.0% higher and new dwelling construction was up 5.7% to produce the aggregate figure of 2.1% for the quarter.

While we argue that rate increases will do little to cure, or ameliorate the current inflation we are experiencing, it won’t stop the speculation by many that it will. This poses an interesting dilemma for the RBA in relation to actual inflation cause and effect vs popular expectation.
China 

The China economy continues to be constrained by its desire to purse a zero-covid policy using lockdowns. President Xi, is urging for more infrastructure spending to balance the covid policy for promoting growth.

Its GDP growth for the March quarter was a respectable 4.8%. The elevated iron ore price of around $140 / tonne suggests that China demand is strong enough to support the 4.8% p.a. growth level though it is below President Xi’s target of 5.5% for 2022.

On a political front, the recent security agreement with the Solomon Islands is yet another disturbing example of China increasing its presence and potential influence in the region and much closer to Australia.

US

There were 431,000 new jobs created as reported in the latest monthly labour report and the unemployment rate is at a low 3.6%.

Inflation is a big problem in the US but, as we discussed elsewhere, the main problems flow from Covid management, supply-chain disruptions, energy costs and the Russian invasion of the Ukraine.

Inflation came in at 8.5% over the year but the March increase was 1.2% and the core inflation read was only 0.3%. Core inflation is starting to look less of an issue without monetary policy tightening.

The March quarter GDP growth read of  1.4% (annualised) was unexpected by most, if not all, commentators. The market seemed to ignore this figure and focus instead on some of the stellar earnings’ reports from the big Nasdaq stocks.

Europe 

Russia has reportedly stopped energy supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. Poland retorted it had plenty of coal at hand and would not suffer as a result.
The IMF growth forecasts highlighted the extent of the economic damage to the Ukraine and Russia from the invasion. The IMF predicts growth over 2022 in Russia to fall by  8.5% and for the Ukraine by  37%.

In France, President Macron was re-elected.

Rest of the world

New Zealand increased its base interest rate by 0.5% points to 1.5%.

Economic Update April 2022

In this month’s update, we provide a snapshot of economic occurrences both nationally and from around the globe.

Key points:

– US inflation pushes higher and the US Fed starts hiking interest rates
– The Ukraine invasion by Russia has not escalated beyond expectations but has become more protracted
– Commodity prices and $A bounce on the Ukraine invasion and Australian economic data very strong
– The world re-opens despite Omicron and now BA2 but lockdowns in China continue to impact supply chains
– China economy bounces back from a weaker second half of 2021

We hope you find this month’s Economic Update as informative as always. If you have any feedback or would like to discuss any aspect of this report, please contact your Financial Adviser.

The Big Picture

While the devastation and casualties continue to mount in the Ukraine, worst-case scenarios seem thankfully to have been avoided – at least so far.

The resilience of the Ukrainian people has reportedly been outstanding. The West has contributed in many ways but it has not attempted to inflame the situation by moving troops too close to the action – or firing our own missiles.

As is usual, markets fell sharply on the first bad news but recovered after having realised they had priced in a worse outcome. With media outlets almost calling a stalemate in the Ukraine with Putin having failed, so far at least, to achieve his objectives (whatever they may have been), it would take fresh bad news to shake the market again. There is opinion forming that Putin might even be at risk of being ousted as leader.

Some of the success in preventing a worse outcome can be attributed to the co-ordinated sanctions being placed on some trade and the assets of the so-called seven oligarchs that amassed great wealth from links with Putin.

Superyachts, planes and property have been seized by various countries. The impact on the Russian economy has reportedly been massive. At the start of March, the Russian Central Bank increased its base interest rate from 9.5% to 20% in an attempt to cushion the rapid depreciation of the rouble.

As March drew to a close, there was some optimism that Putin was considering a ‘lesser objective’ and, indeed, recent talks between the two sides is offering a little more hope than previous talks.
While Ukraine is rightly taking centre stage on TV news, the great economic news from Australia, the US and China might have largely flown under the radar.

The US Federal Reserve (the ‘Fed’) raised its cash interest rate by 0.25% points to a range of 0.25% to 0.50% at its March meeting. It also signalled that it now expects six more hikes this year rather than the three in total it expected for 2022 at its December meeting. The forwards’ markets that price these outcomes have been swirling as each statement is made by a Fed member. US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell recently came out and predicted possible ‘double hikes’ of 0.50% points. As a result, markets have priced in a double hike at its next meeting on May 4th as being more than twice as likely as a single hike. There is no appetite for more than a double hike or conversely, staying on hold.

This interest rate news has also affected the US mortgage market. Unlike in Australia, their most common type of mortgage is a 30-year fixed-rate loan. It gives perfect foresight to the borrower as to what payments can be expected for the entire length of the loan. Moreover, as inflation builds over the 30 years, the repayments fall in inflation-adjusted terms.

The US 30-yr mortgage rate jumped sharply twice in the last week or so of March to 4.95%. Contrast that to our floating rates in the low two percent range. The US mortgage rate hikes and the recent increases in property prices mean that people are now paying 20% more a month than others were quite recently. That’s got to hurt! Existing mortgagees, of course, pay the same as they previously did because they bought a while back at the old prices and the rate was then fixed for the entire term. Only the new buyers suffer with the higher rate and this in turn might help cool the US property market.

With this change in monetary policy stance, the important question, now canvassed by even ‘sensible’ economists, is will this change by the Fed cause a recession? They have certainly been found guilty on a number of previous occasions!

In general, as a central bank raises rates to cool an economy – known as ‘monetary policy tightening’ – the rates for short terms, like 3-months to 12-months,rise in unison. For longer terms – say 10-yrs or more – interest rates may not move as much or at all. Most agree that expected inflation is the major determinant of longer term interest rates.

The ‘normal’ situation is that short term rates are lower than long term rates reflecting the increased risk to capital return over the longer term. These yields typically rise smoothly with the term of the bonds/term deposits. The array of yields for the different terms from short to long is called the yield curve when all plotted on the same chart, longer term yields typically flatten out after about 7-10 years. When rates at the short end are higher than at the longer end, the so-called yield curve is said to be inverted.

Back in 2019 the yield curve got close to being inverted and some called a recession would follow. While it is true that most recessions are preceded by an inverted curve, it is also true that not all inverted yield curves are followed by a recession.

It usually takes several factors to cause a recession. We argued in 2019 that the inverted yield curve was on its own not sufficient to justify a recession. As it turned out, there was a recession in 2020 but that was caused almost entirely by the unexpected shutdown in response to the Covid 19 pandemic – and not interest rates!

It is also important to note that some people consider the yield curve ‘spread’ for inversion to be the difference between the very short yield and the 10-yr yield while others focus on the difference between the 2-yr and 10-yr yields. Obviously, as the yield curve flattens out, the latter indicator is dominated more by very small movements in yield and hence is more likely to invert in turn increasing the potential for it to give a false signal. That said, any inversion of the yield curve should not be ignored and the reasons for it investigated.

It is equally important to note that the actual yield, rather than the yield ‘spread’ alone, must play a big role. If all rates were pretty close to zero (say less than 0.10%) it is difficult to see how any recessionary problems could emerge from an inverted yield curve. On the other hand, back in 2000 and 2006-2007, the 2-yr yields were over 5% when those yield curves inverted (on the ‘2yr-10yr’ spread definition) and each was followed by a recession. Today the 2-yr yield is closer to 2.5% – hardly the stuff of expensive borrowing costs compared to current inflation at around 6% to 7%.

Obviously, the Fed could cause a recession this time around so we shouldn’t rule it out. The Fed funds rate has a long way to go before inversion gets close (using the spread over the whole curve i.e. cash vs 10 yr) so we shouldn’t worry yet. Increasing the rate from the ‘emergency’ rate range of 0.00% to 0.25% by a little is not really tightening. Tightening doesn’t really start until the rate gets above the so-called ‘neutral rate’ which neither slows down nor speeds up the economy. There is no precise estimate of what the neutral rate might be, but most well-informed analysts say it was somewhere around 2.5%.

We are convinced many commentators do not properly understand the linkage between interest rates and inflation. There is no magic string that joins the two together. Rather, increasing the Fed funds rate (US cash rate) increases in turn the cost of borrowing for households and businesses. Those increases in costs slows down growth and take ‘demand side’ inflation pressures away.

Importantly, the US government debt is in the trillions of dollars so the Fed won’t want to shoot itself in the foot by recklessly hiking rates and increasing its debt funding costs.

A large contributor to current inflation in the US is due to supply-chain disruptions caused by the pandemic and surges in energy and ‘soft’ commodity prices (such as wheat) which are due to the Ukrainian situation and related causes. There is no linkage between the US funds rate and those two causes of inflation. Therefore, if the Fed kept trying to crank up interest rates until inflation collapsed, the economy would collapse before inflation dropped significantly.

We think that it is quite plausible that the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, fully understands these arguments. He has almost said as much. By cranking interest rates up just a little, he gets a lot of people off his case without causing a problem. Smart move! Let‘s not worry about the Fed funds rate until it gets to around 2.5% and that’s probably 2023.

Towards the end of the year Ukraine and supply-chain issues might be receding and inflation may then fall – but not in response to any modest rate rises. If that happens, Powell can then keep rates on hold until domestic causes of inflation really are a problem. If inflation does not fall because of the reasons given, he can point to the disconnect, so that more rate rises won’t help.
Recessions are always possible and typically come out of the blue. We see no reason to increase our expectation of a recession any time soon.

Getting back to the real economy, US jobs data were very strong and the unemployment rate is down to 3.8%. Wages growth came in at 5.1% in March but that is less than even the ‘core’ rate of inflation that strips out volatile energy and food prices. It is good that wages are rising because, otherwise, workers would be much worse off. There are no obvious signs of a wage-price spiral based on expectations (yet?).

At home our central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia (‘RBA’), kept rates on hold. Our inflation is in the preferred ‘zone’ so we don’t need to raise rates at the moment. However, for the same reasons as the Fed, they might choose to make a very modest hike or two this year to get people off their case.

Our GDP growth came in at +3.4% for the quarter (Q4, 2021) which was distorted by a bounce-back from the Delta virus lockdown. Growth was +4.2% for the whole of 2021 and GDP is now +3.4% (not annualised) above where it was before the pandemic.

Home prices from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (‘ABS’) surged in 2021 in Australia – by 23.7% for the year. There is evidence from a private data source, CoreLogic, that house price growth has slowed to close to zero in the first three months of 2022. (No RBA interest rate rise was needed to cause that!)

Our unemployment rate fell to 4.0% which is the equal lowest in 48 years (see Federal Budget statement). 121,000 new full-time jobs were created. 20,000 would usually be called a big number. That is very good news, indeed.

March ended with our Federal Budget. There was no clear long-term policy direction – more of a mish mash of handouts in a typical election mode push. The Treasurer forecast growth of 4.25% in this financial year and 3.5% in the following year. Thereafter, to 2025-26, he forecast growth of 2.5% p.a. He also expects the unemployment rate to fall to 3.75%.

Even China data have been ‘on the bounce’. Retail sales were up 6.7% (for Jan/Feb combined) compared to an expected 3%; industrial production was up 7.5% compared to an expected 3.9%. China data got a bit soft last year as they pursued a zero-Covid policy. Indeed, China is now forcing a short, sharp shutdown for Shanghai in a bid to stop a new wave of infection. China is reportedly pumping stimulus into the economy which may account for the recent strong economic data.

Thankfully, China has not become too involved in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Perhaps they appreciate the possible impact of sanctions on them if they were to pursue a reunification of Taiwan by force.

Stock markets are charging towards their all-time highs on the basis of good data and not too much economic impact in the West from the Ukraine invasion. Bond yields are now getting to the mid to high 2% range in the US and Australia but that is no match for the expected return in equities. Share markets are still supported by the TINA – there is no alternative – principle!

Asset Classes

Australian Equities

The ASX 200 gained +6.4% during the month of March which puts the index just up on the year-to-date (+0.7%). Much of the gains were due to the Resources sectors – Energy (+9.6%), Materials (+8.2%) – doing very well on much higher commodity prices. The Financials (+8.3%) and IT (+13.2%) sectors also performed particularly strongly.

International Equities

The S&P 500 (+3.5%) also had a strong month but not matching the gains on the ASX 200. Probably due to the Ukraine invasion, the London FTSE and the Frankfurt DAX struggled to keep pace. China and the broader Emerging Markets indexes went backwards in March. Over the year-to-date, the S&P 500 lost 4.9%.

Bonds and Interest Rates

The US Fed increased the Fed funds rates by 0.25% points in March – at their first meeting since December. In the December meeting, the Fed thought that they would need three hikes this year. The update to now is significantly different, one increase just done and six more to come. The reason for the shift is a material change in inflation expectations supported by a set of chunky inflation figures for recent periods.

We argued elsewhere in this update that much of the current inflation problem can simply not be fixed by hiking rates.

But before people panic and rush for the exits, some context is useful. If we look at the yield curve today, 12 months ago, 24 months ago and 36 months ago we see a really interesting evolution.
For 2-yr bonds to 10-yr bonds, the yield curves are just about the same now as in 2019. The difference is that today, the short-term yield is less than 0.5% and it rises steeply to about 2-yrs. Back in 2019, the whole yield curve was more or less flat.

US Yield Curves at March in each of the past 4 years

In other words, pushing the Fed funds rate up to about 2.50% – a massive change from the current rate, we may just about where we were in March 2019!

In 2020, the yield curve collapsed due to the pandemic across the whole term structure. In 2021, there was some recovery so the recent gains should be compared to the difference from 2019 and not from the crisis data.

In 2019, the world was a happier place – no pandemic; no Russian invasion of Ukraine; no spike in the prices of wheat and oil; no major supply-chain issues. We are simply edging back to normal with historically very low rates – even after a few more hikes. Panic now is the last thing we need.

The RBA did not raise rates at its March meeting nor do we think it should have done. The core CPI inflation read was bang in the middle of the 2% to 3% RBA-target band. Unemployment is 4% which is low but it has been a bit lower and we were still happy then.

The interesting question is why our inflation level is just fine but it is not so in the US and elsewhere. We live in a global economy.

Our economy is very different from that in the US. We are heavily dependent on resource exports – notably iron ore with a price going gangbusters. And the composition of our production is quite different. To be frank, we cannot explain all of the differences but, to some extent we don’t have to. All we need to know is whether our policy makers and industries are up to the challenges they face. We think they have been and see no reason for this to change.

Other Assets

The price of Brent Crude Oil gained +6.2% over the month. Not only was the invasion of Ukraine a cause but also rebels bombed oil storage facilities outside of the Saudi capital just before they staged the F1 Grand Prix in late March. US President Biden did just order the release of one million barrels per day from reserves to soften fuel prices.

The price of iron ore rose +13.9% and that for copper +5.7%. Importantly, the VIX ‘fear gauge’ retreated to below 20% almost to where it started the year but then just rose a fraction at the close of the quarter during Wall Street’s last hour sell-off. It peaked this year at 36.5% in March.

On the back of the stronger commodity prices, the $A (in US terms) appreciated strongly by +4.2% to nearly $US0.75.

Regional Review

Australia

As Australia lurches towards a federal election, both sides seem to be offering enticements but they are both falling short in other ways. Given what we know so far, it seems to be far less important than last time who wins – especially for folk who have super funds! The March budget delivered a number of handouts but there were no particular fresh long-term policy objectives. Super was largely untouched in a negative sense.

The latest economic growth for Australia covered Q4, 2021 came in at an impressive +3.4% but +3.7% had been expected because of the economic bounce-back. Noting this period was not affected by Omicron or the Ukraine situation and it did pick up the bounce back from the Delta lockdown. The annual figure was +4.2% for 2021 but that figure includes the bounce-back from the first big lockdown in 2020.

When we measure growth across the two years of the pandemic, total growth was +3.4% or about +1.7% p.a. That’s not too bad given the extreme public health responses Australia made.

Another important statistic in the national accounts is the household savings ratio. It is often fairly static but it bounces around when people’s hopes for the future markedly change. A mid to high single digit percentage is usual. It jumped to 19.8% in Q3 reflecting fear and a lack of opportunity to spend. That ratio fell to 13.6% in Q4 but it leaves a lot further to go to get back to normal. We expect strong growth to continue given these cashed-up consumers will have more opportunity to spend – and feel confident enough not to need a bigger ‘rainy day’ fund.

Our latest labour-force data relates to a week in the month of February so it doesn’t pick up the Ukraine invasion but Omicron was around. There were +121,000 new full-time jobs created but, as some part-time jobs were lost, the total number of new jobs was +77,400 – but that’s still very impressive. Having a switch from part-time to full-time work bodes well for growth expectations.

China

China data were much stronger than the last few months and much stronger than expectations. China usually combines data for January and February so that the moveable big Lunar New Year holiday has a more predictable impact.

That the three regular statistics of retail sales, industrial output and fixed asset investment all smashed expectations bode well for resource demand from Australia and China’s economy. Many commodity prices have boomed along with this recovery.

Two factors in China affect our economy the most. The zero-Covid policy means that it is much harder to make inroads into the supply-chain blockages. The relationship between China and Russia could cause major problems if they align too closely. But, so far so good. We are more than muddling through.

US

Last month we reported a bumper beat on the jobs front. This latest month was an even bigger beat! The +678,000 new jobs statistic was well ahead of the expected +440,000. The unemployment rate was 3.8% but the Fed chair has stated that a number such as this does not equate to full employment.

CPI inflation came in at 7.1% but the core rate that strips out volatile energy and food components was a more acceptable 6.4%. Wage growth was less at 5.1%. Core Private Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – came in at 5.4%.

It is probably a good idea that Fed chair Jerome Powell is getting a little aggressive on interest rates as he will not want inflation expectations to start to spiral. He seems up to the task.

Europe

All of the action in March was again in Eastern Europe. The Ukrainians are putting up a stronger defence of their homeland than Russian President Putin could have imagined. There are reports that his undefined goals are being reduced. There is also talk of people wanting Putin out.

Rest of the world

In a disturbing turn of events, India is negotiating a banking deal with Russia. Some are worried that this could help Putin circumvent sanctions.

Federal Budget Summary 2022

In this special report, our Head of Professional Standards & Technical Services, Craig Meldrum, looks at the key takeout’s from the 2022 Federal Budget and what it means for individuals and businesses, for tax, superannuation and social security that may impact wealth creation and retirement funding strategies for Infocus’ advisers and clients.

The macro

While the global pandemic forced the 2021 Federal budget to be handed down 21 weeks later than it would normally have been delivered, this year’s impending Federal election has meant the 2022 Budget has been handed down 6 weeks earlier than normal (the election is expected to be announced on the 14th or 21st of May 2022). And while the 2021 budget was all about the monumental task of managing the health impacts of the pandemic and delivering a budget to provide a road to recovery out of the catastrophic economic black hole caused by the Covid-19 turmoil, that was all largely forgotten about as the Treasurer considered the war in Ukraine, the global supply chain shocks, rising inflation and cost of living pressures (especially in the price at the petrol bowser), stagnant wage growth and the recent flood events in Northern NSW and South Eastern Queensland.

This was Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s fourth and (given the state of the LNP Coalition’s standing in the polls) potentially last Federal budget, so it was expected there would be lots of giveaways and prizes to woo the electorate. There was also some criticism that if it did promise too much, was it going to be an economically responsible budget or might it actually exasperate the cost of living pressures given the perception that we are entering a period of higher inflation? In other words, did it achieve enough to help ease the cost-of-living pressures for Australians and secure another term for the Coalition while remaining fiscally responsible?

The Treasurer led with a great statistic – a 4% unemployment rate – the equal lowest in 48 years (which is expected to drop further to 3.75% in the September 2022 quarter). Economic theory would suggest that full employment translates to greater demand from employers and a higher cost of labour. Or does commodity-driven inflation, a high rate of immigration, no effective union ownership of the labour market and a technology-driven structural disruption to deployment of human capital lead to sustained wage stagnation to the point that only Government intervention will bridge the gap? The Government has been very proud that there are more women in work, that there are more jobs paying higher wages and that the Jobkeeper program saved 700,000 jobs during the height of the pandemic. But stagnation in wages growth is not so easily solved, so, yes, this budget had to be about spending to address (in some sense) the rising cost of living pressures.

In terms of the high-level numbers, the Treasurer was very proud that we are $100 billion better off than last year, largely off the revenue generated from trade in iron ore, gas and coal. Can we then afford a “cash splash” of a budget? A budget deficit of $78 billion for 2022-23 (3.4 per cent of GDP) is down from the $79.8 billion of a year ago and is projected to more than halve to 1.6% with net debt of $714.9 billion for 2022-23 peaking at $864.7 billion (33.1%) in 2025-26, so maybe?

The goodies (without the detail)

This budget contained a range of individual measures impacting taxation, superannuation, housing, business, health, family, infrastructure, employment, cost of living and national security. The following summary is not complete and focusses only on those areas particular to financial advice and strategy, namely superannuation, taxation, social security, small business and measures designed to ease cost of living pressures. Some of the following announcements are described in more detail further on in this report;

  • Temporary reduction in the fuel excise – one of the first announcements was a halving of the fuel excise from about 44 cents per litre to 22 cents per litre for 6 months (starting from midnight on Budget night), at a cost of $3 billion. The fuel excise is a bit of a sacred cow and governments are loathe to meddle with it, but as instant sugar hits go, that’s about a $12 saving per tank for most people.
  • $250 cost of living payment – the Government announced that in April 2022, it will provide a one-off cost of living payment of $250 to eligible pensioners, welfare recipients, veterans and concession card holders.
  • The Low and Middle Income Tax Offset (LMITO) will be increased by $420 for 2021-22 – while the LMITO is legislated to cease this year (and no announcement was made that it would be extended), the Government did announce a one-off $420 cost of living tax offset for the 2021-22 income year which will see the LMITO increased up to a maximum of $1,500 (for 2021-22 only).
  • No changes announced regarding personal tax rates – the legislated Stage 3 personal income tax cuts remain unchanged and will commence in 2024-25.
  • Super pension drawdowns – the 50% reduction in the minimum annual payment amounts for superannuation pensions and annuities that was provided during the economic downturn caused by the pandemic will be extended by a further year to the 2022-23 income year.
  • Super Guarantee rate – the Budget did not contain any change to the legislated Super Guarantee rate rise from 10% to 10.5% for 2022-23.
  • Small business 20% deduction boost: skills training and digital adoption – businesses with aggregated annual turnover less than $50 million will receive a 20% uplift on deductions for eligible expenditure on external training courses and digital technology (the cost of business expenses and depreciating assets that support digital uptake), or, as the Treasurer described it, for every $100 spent, businesses can deduct $120. The measure will apply to eligible expenditure incurred from 29 March 2022 until 30 June 2024 (for skills training) and 30 June 2023 (for digital adoption).
  • Digitalising trust returns – the Government has announced that from 1 July 2024, all trust tax return filers will be given the option to lodge income tax returns electronically.
  • Paid Parental Leave – the Paid Parental Leave scheme will integrate existing schemes to give eligible families access to up to 20 weeks leave to use in ways that suit their specific circumstances.
  • Employee Share Schemes – the Government will expand access to employee share schemes and further reduce red tape so that employees at all levels can directly share in the business growth they help to generate. Where employers make larger offers in connection with employee share schemes in unlisted companies, participants can invest up to $30,000 per participant per year, accruable for unexercised options for up to 5 years, plus 70 per cent of dividends and cash bonuses; or any amount, if it would allow them to immediately take advantage of a planned sale or listing of the company to sell their purchased interests at a profit. The Government will also remove regulatory requirements for offers to independent contractors, where they do not have to pay for interests.

More detail on a few of the measures

Personal taxation

Low and Middle Income Tax Offset (LMITO) (for 2021-22 only)

The LMITO will be increased by $420 for the 2021-22 income year so that eligible individuals will receive a maximum LMITO benefit up to $1,500 for 2021-22 (up from the current maximum of $1,080). This one-off $420 cost of living tax offset will only apply to the 2021-22 income year. It remains legislated to only apply until the end of the 2021-22 income year (up to $1,500 instead of $1,080).

The $420 is not subject to tapering so other than where an individual’s tax liability is less than that, all LMITO recipients will benefit from the full $420 increase. The full benefit will be available to those individuals earning between $48,001 and $90,000 (but phasing out up to $126,000). Those earning up to $48,000 will also receive the $420 one-off tax offset on top of their existing $255 LMITO benefit (phasing up for incomes between $37,001 and $48,000).

Taxable Income (TI) LMITO (2021-22)

Current

 LMITO (2021-22)

Proposed
$0 – $37,000 $255 $675
$37,001 – $48,000 $255 + ([TI – $37,000] × 7.5%) $675 + ([TI – $37,000] × 7.5%)
$48,001 – $90,000 $1,080 $1,500
$90,001 – $126,000 $1,080 – ([TI – $90,000] × 3%) $1,500 – ([TI – $90,000] × 3%)
$126,001 + Nil Nil

Marginal Tax Rates

There were no changes to personal tax rates announced in this budget. The Government’s legislated three-stage tax plan that was announced in 2018 and enhanced in 2019 is as follows;

  • Stage 1 amended the 32.5% and 37% marginal tax brackets over 2018-19 to 2021-22 and introduced the Low and Middle Income Tax Offset (LMITO);
  • Stage 2 was designed to further reduce bracket creep over 2022-23 & 2023-24 by amending the 19%, 32.5% and 37% marginal tax brackets; and
  • Stage 3 was aimed at simplifying and flattening the progressive tax rates for 2024–25 and increasing the Low Income Tax Offset (LITO). From 1 July 2024, there will only be 3 personal income tax rates – 19%, 30% and 45%. The Government estimated that around 94 per cent of taxpayers would be on a marginal tax rate of 30% or less (as shown in the tables below).

Amended tax plan (changed amounts in red)

Tax rates (2019-20) Thresholds Tax rates (2020-21 & 2021-22)) Thresholds
Nil $0 – $18,200 Nil $0 – $18,200
19% $18,201 – $37,000 19% $18,201 – $45,000
32.5% $37,001 – $90,000 32.5% $45,001 – $120,000
37% $90,001 – $180,000 37% $120,001 – $180,000
45% $180,000 + 45% $180,000 +
LITO Up to $445 LITO Up to $700
LMITO Up to $1,080 LMITO Up to $1,080

(Up to $1,500 proposed for 2021-22)

 

Tax rates (2022-23 & 2023-24) Thresholds Tax rates (2024-25) onwards Thresholds
Nil $0 – $18,200 Nil $0 – $18,200
19% $18,201 – $45,000 19% $18,201 – $45,000
32.5% $45,001 – $120,000 30% $45,001 – $200,000
37% $120,001 – $180,000 – –
45% $180,000 + 45% $200,000 +
LITO Up to $700 LITO Up to $700
LMITO – LMITO –

Low Income Tax Offset (LITO) – unchanged

The low income tax offset (LITO) will continue to apply for the 2021-22 and 2022-23 income years. The LITO was intended to replace the former low income and low and middle income tax offsets from 2022-23, but the new LITO was brought forward in the 2020 Budget to apply from the 2020-21 income year.

Taxable Income (TI) LITO (2021-22 & 2022-23)
$0 – $37,500 $700
$37,501 – $45,000 $700 – ([TI – $37,500] × 5.0%)
$45,001 – $66,667 $325 – ([TI – $45,000] × 1.5%)
$66,668+ Nil

Superannuation

Pension drawdowns – 50% reduction extended to 2022-23

Superannuation did not really get any mention in this year’s budget. The only announcement of note concerned the extension by one year of the temporary 50% reduction in minimum annual payment amounts for superannuation pensions and annuities to 30 June 2023. It is worth noting that there is no requirement for a pension recipient to take the minimum, however people did find it valuable during the period of market turmoil during the pandemic to take less than the standard pension amount to help preserve their pension capital.

Age of beneficiary (years) Standard percentage factor (%) Minimum drawdown for 2019-20 to 2021-22 (and 2022-23 proposed) (after 50% reduction)
0 – 64 4 2
65 – 74 5 2.5
75 – 79 6 3
80 – 84 7 3.5
85– 89 9 4.5
90 – 94 11 5.5
95+ 14 7

Allowing commutation of certain income streams

The Government had previously announced that the Superannuation Industry (Supervision) Regulations 1994 (SIS Regulations) would be amended to allow commutations to be made from certain non-commutable pensions to resolve excess transfer balance amounts. It appears that the Government will be proceeding with these amendments to the SIS Regulations.

Social Security and Aged Care

One-off $250 cost of living payment

Social Security and Aged Care also missed out on any big reforms in this budget. The Government has announced that it will make a $250 one-off cost of living payment in April 2022 to eligible pensioners, welfare recipients, veterans and eligible concession card holders.

The $250 payment will be tax-exempt and not count as income support for the purposes of any Government income support. The payment will only be available to Australian residents who are eligible recipients of the following payments and to concession card holders; Age Pension, Disability Support Pension, Parenting Payment, Carer Payment, Carer Allowance (if not in receipt of a primary income support payment), Jobseeker Payment, Youth Allowance, Austudy and Abstudy Living Allowance, Double Orphan Pension, Special Benefit, Farm Household Allowance, Pensioner Concession Card (PCC) holders, Commonwealth Seniors Health Card holders and eligible Veterans’ Affairs payment recipients and Veteran Gold card holders. Note that a person can only receive one economic support payment, even if they are eligible under more than one category.

Business taxation

Apart from the deduction boosts for small businesses with skills and training and digital adoption and some measures regarding PAYG instalments and tweaks to the PAYG and GST instalment uplift factor, further assistance for businesses employing apprentices and the announcement regarding changes to reduce red tape and accessibility of employee share schemes, there was not a lot to mention with regard to business measures.

Conclusion and where to from here?

While this budget has all the trimmings of a pre-election cash splash with a few goodies, it was pretty light on in terms of any reform. There was mention of some of the big ticket east-coast infrastructure projects including nearly $10 billion in enhancing Australia’s national cyber security efforts, recommitment on spending on women’s health and more on stopping violence against women, recommitment and more funding towards the housing guarantee scheme and the full funding of the NDIS and some efficiency measure, but not a lot more.

With the election so close, voters will be closely watching Labor’s budget reply to see what goodies are on offer, with cost of living relief high on everyone’s agenda. We’ll see.

As with all budget announcements, the measures are proposals only and need to be enacted by Parliament.

I urge readers to contact your financial adviser with any specific questions you may have.

General Advice Warning

The information in this presentation contains general advice only, that is, advice which does not take into account your needs, objectives or financial situation. You need to consider the appropriateness of that general advice in light of your personal circumstances before acting on the advice. You should obtain and consider the Product Disclosure Statement for any product discussed before making a decision to acquire that product. You should obtain financial advice that addresses your specific needs and situation before making investment decisions. While every care has been taken in the preparation of this information, Infocus Securities Australia Pty Ltd (Infocus) does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. Infocus does not guarantee any particular outcome or future performance. Infocus is a registered tax (financial) adviser. Any tax advice in this presentation is incidental to the financial advice in it.  Taxation information is based on our interpretation of the relevant laws as at 1 July 2020. You should seek specialist advice from a tax professional to confirm the impact of this advice on your overall tax position. Any case studies included are hypothetical, for illustration purposes only and are not based on actual returns.

 

Infocus Securities Australia Pty Ltd (ABN 47 097 797 049) AFSL No. 236 523.

 

Market volatility & Europe

In this update we provide an overview of the market volatility and the impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Why has Russia invaded Ukraine?

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s main motive for launching the invasion of Ukraine appears to be to prevent NATO’s expansion going further East into the Balkan states. That said, there is also another motive which is much closer to home for President Putin. Ukraine’s people and culture have drifted to the West and have become more European since independence from the former Soviet Union and Putin is also concerned about the impact of having a Western leaning democracy on Russia’s border. This is because economic success in Ukraine would highlight the corruption, underperformance and inequities of autocratic Russia. So, the invasion of Ukraine is also about protecting Putin’s reign from enemies within Russia and to strengthen his position in the upcoming Russian elections this year.

What has been the response of the rest of the world?

Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so Europe and the USA are not obligated to defend Ukraine militarily. To date it seems that the West is unwilling to engage Russia militarily, which is wise given Russia’s substantial nuclear arsenal. To date, the main response to the invasion by the West has been economic sanctions, which are targeted to hurt Russia’s economy and the Russian oligarchs.

How is the Ukraine war likely to play out?

While Ukraine has a strong military, it is not a match for the Russian army. That said, the Ukrainians are willing fighters and will provide strong resistance. While the actual invasion and defeat of Ukraine’s military is expected to come relatively quickly, much like the US occupation of Iraq, many military analysts believe that a full longstanding occupation of Ukraine (including taking Kiev) could prove to be very costly for Russia. Though Putin has said he does not intend to occupy the Ukraine.

The war with Ukraine does not seem to be that popular in Russia, Putin’s plan may therefore be to play the long game, seeking to only take part of the country (not including Kiev) and destabilise the Ukrainian government with the goal of putting in a Russian leaning leader in charge.

How does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine impact the markets?

Russia’s economy is only marginally bigger than Australia’s and less than 2% of the world economy. This is despite Russia having nearly six times as many people as Australia. So, the economic impact of the war is likely not material in terms of the global economy.

However, Russia’s economy has some similarities to Australia and is driven by commodity prices, with Oil and Gas being Russia’s main exports. From a market’s perspective, the key concern about the Ukraine war is Energy prices. Energy prices are a key driver of inflation, which is already very high in the USA and the West. Given that interest rates are already set to rise this year in developed economies to quell inflation, so the focus of markets is on how the Ukraine war will impact the decisions of central banks.

On this point, since the situation in Ukraine has escalated, the implied chance of a 0.50% interest rate hike by the US Fed in March has dropped from 60% to 11% today. (Essentially the markets are implying that a hike of only 0.25% is now all but guaranteed and the implication here is that central banks will not hike rates as aggressively as was expected prior to the invasion.)

How are we thinking about the impact of the war on portfolios?

While we obviously don’t know how the Ukraine war will play out, there are a few lessons from history we should head from previous geopolitical events:

  1. Markets are unpredictable in the short run and market timing is difficult
  2. Growth assets outperform over the very long run and being out of the share market on its best days can be extremely costly
  3. Markets tend to overreact to geopolitical events and then rebound over the next few months (see table below)

 

Geopolitical Events and Stock Market (S&P 500) Reactions

Generally, we believe that the best approach is to stay the course with our investment strategy/asset allocation, unless an impending major market failure in the near term is apparent (i.e. the global shutdown at the start of the COVID pandemic or the Lehman Brothers collapse) or if the markets reach a state of hyper panic.

The Key Questions We Are Asking Ourselves

  • Are we seeing any evidence of an impending market failure spiraling from the Ukraine war? No, we think the impact on markets will be not significant unless the war escalates to include fighting by another nuclear power (i.e. direct intervention by NATO).
  • Is the Ukraine war going to send the world into recession in the next 6 months? Probably not given Russia’s economy is almost insignificant in terms of the global GDP.
    Are the markets in a state of hyper panic now? No. Measures of market volatility are elevated, as expected, but not markedly so.
  • How will the Ukraine war impact the Fed’s decision on US interest rates in March? Even prior to the situation in Ukraine escalating, we expected the Fed to be less aggressive than the market in raising interest rates and did not anticipate the US to hike interest rates by 0.50%. We are now in line with the market’s implied forecast and believe that the most likely change is a 0.25% hike.

 

Conclusion

While our sympathy is clearly with the Ukrainian people at this time, from an investment perspective, our assessment is that this event as destabilising as it is and for the reasons expressed above will not be material for investment markets in the near term. Hence, our view is that based on the information we have and continue to monitor very closely, current portfolio positioning remains appropriate, not withstanding that we could revisit this assessment if the situation escalates further.

General Advice Warning

The information in this presentation contains general advice only, that is, advice which does not take into account your needs, objectives or financial situation. You need to consider the appropriateness of that general advice in light of your personal circumstances before acting on the advice. You should obtain and consider the Product Disclosure Statement for any product discussed before making a decision to acquire that product. You should obtain financial advice that addresses your specific needs and situation before making investment decisions. While every care has been taken in the preparation of this information, Infocus Securities Australia Pty Ltd (Infocus) does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. Infocus does not guarantee any particular outcome or future performance. Infocus is a registered tax (financial) adviser. Any tax advice in this presentation is incidental to the financial advice in it.  Taxation information is based on our interpretation of the relevant laws as at 1 July 2020. You should seek specialist advice from a tax professional to confirm the impact of this advice on your overall tax position. Any case studies included are hypothetical, for illustration purposes only and are not based on actual returns.

Infocus Securities Australia Pty Ltd (ABN 47 097 797 049) AFSL No. 236 523.

At a Glance: Federal Budget 2021

Please find below a high-level overview of key takeout’s from the Federal Budget Summary 2021 as delivered overnight.

Taxes

-The Stage 3 personal income tax cuts will proceed as originally planned, commencing on 1 July 2024. The tax rate above taxable income of $45,000 will drop from 32.5% to 30%, and the rate of 45% will apply above $200,000, eliminating the 37% tax bracket.
– The LMITO will be extended to 2021–22. Originally legislated for 4 years, the LMITO was then reduced to 2 years and due to end on 30 June 2021. The 12-month extension means it will end 30 June 2022. The rates and thresholds remain unchanged.
-The reduction in tax provided by LMITO will remain at $1,080 per annum ($2,160 for dual-income couples) with the base amount at $255 per annum for the 2020-21 income year.
– The $250 threshold for self-education expenses is to be removed.

Superannuation

– The work test will be removed completely. This measure is expected to take effect from 1 July 2022.
– The current minimum income threshold of $450 per month will be removed. The measure is expected to start from 1 July 2022. This means lower income earners, many of them women, will become entitled to superannuation guarantee support regardless of their level of income.
– The legislated Super Guarantee rate increase from 9.5% to 10% will apply for 2021-22.
– The age for making downsizer contributions (up to $300,000 of proceeds per member of a couple from selling the principal residence of at least 10 years) will be reduced from 65 to 60. This measure is expected to take effect from 1 July 2022. Downsizer contributions are not included in the NCC cap.
– The maximum amount of voluntary contributions that can be released under the First Home Super Saver Scheme will increase from $30,000 to $50,000. This measure is expected to take effect from 1 July 2022.
– The residency requirements for SMSFs and small APRA funds will be relaxed by extending the central management and control test safe harbour from 2 to 5 years for SMSFs; and removing the active member test for both fund types. This measure and is expected to take effect from 1 July 2022.
– The Government will not proceed with a measure to extend early release of superannuation to victims of family and domestic violence. The measure was previously announced on 21 November 2018.
– Individuals will be permitted to exit certain legacy retirement income stream products (excluding flexi-pensions or lifetime products in APRA-funds or public sector schemes), together with any associated reserves, for a 2-year period. Any commuted reserves will not be counted towards an individual’s concessional contribution cap. Instead, they will be taxed as an assessable contribution for the fund.

Social Security

– The Government has announced that they will be increasing the flexibility of the Pension Loans Scheme (PLS) by allowing participants to access up to two lump sum advances in any 12-month – period up to a total value of 50% of the maximum annual rate of the aged pension.
– The total PLS is currently around $12,385 per year for singles and $18,670 couples (combined). The Government has also announced it will introduce a No Negative Equity Guarantee which means that when the house is sold, the Government will not claim back more than the sale price of the house used to guarantee the payment
– The new Family Home Guarantee will allow single parents with dependants to purchase a home with as little as a 2% deposit.

Aged Care

– The Government will invest a total of $17.7 billion on aged care reform over five years, including:
– $6.5 billion for 80,000 additional Home Care Packages over the next two years;
– $798.3 million for to provide greater access to respite care services and payments to support carers;
– $7.8 billion for a new funding model for residential aged care, with a $10 per person per day supplement of the Basic Daily Fee;
– $189.3 million over four years from 2020-21 to implement the new funding model, the Australian National Aged Care Classification (AN-ACC); and
– $117.3 million to support structural reforms, including the implementation of a new Refundable Accommodation Deposit (RAD) Support Loan Program.

Small businesses

– The Government will extend the 2020-21 temporary full expensing measures for 12 months until 30 June 2023. This will allow eligible businesses with aggregated annual turnover or total income of less than $5 billion to deduct the full cost of eligible depreciable assets of any value, acquired from 7:30pm AEDT on 6 October 2020 and first used or installed ready for use by 30 June 2023.
– The loss years in respect of which an eligible company (aggregated annual turnover of up to $5 billion) can currently carry back a tax loss (2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22) will be extended to include the 2022-23 income year.
– The Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT) will be given the power to pause or modify ATO debt recovery action in relation to disputed debts of small businesses. This is expected to improve efficiency by keeping these matters out of the courts.

General Advice Warning

The information in this presentation contains general advice only, that is, advice which does not take into account your needs, objectives or financial situation. You need to consider the appropriateness of that general advice in light of your personal circumstances before acting on the advice. You should obtain and consider the Product Disclosure Statement for any product discussed before making a decision to acquire that product. You should obtain financial advice that addresses your specific needs and situation before making investment decisions. While every care has been taken in the preparation of this information, Infocus Securities Australia Pty Ltd (Infocus) does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. Infocus does not guarantee any particular outcome or future performance. Infocus is a registered tax (financial) adviser. Any tax advice in this presentation is incidental to the financial advice in it.  Taxation information is based on our interpretation of the relevant laws as at 1 July 2020. You should seek specialist advice from a tax professional to confirm the impact of this advice on your overall tax position. Any case studies included are hypothetical, for illustration purposes only and are not based on actual returns.

Infocus Securities Australia Pty Ltd (ABN 47 097 797 049) AFSL No. 236 523.

Economic Update April 2021

Within this month’s update, we share with you a snapshot of economic occurrences both nationally and from around the globe.

Vaccination nationalism!

– US COVID-19 infection rate starts to climb again despite vaccine rollout
– US and global economic growth strong – but not yet inflationary
– Bond yields rise strongly as inflation expectations increase in response to economic recovery and maintenance of stimulatory policy settings

We hope you find this month’s Economic Update as informative as always. If you have any feedback or would like to discuss any aspect of this report, please contact our team.

The Big Picture

The race against COVID-19 continues but at very different speeds around the globe. Some countries have not yet started a vaccination programme and we have only just begun ours. We sadly found out at the end of March we hadn’t yet vaccinated all of the front-line health workers in Brisbane! The NSW and federal governments are in a stoush about vaccine shortages and misinformation.

The UK is well ahead of the US in terms of the proportion of their populations having been vaccinated but the US has delivered 150 million shots ‘into arms’.

While it might seem like a priority to get a whole nation’s population vaccinated first, the virus can only be eradicated when a sizeable proportion of the whole world’s nearly 8 billion people are immune through vaccination or having contracted the virus. And the longer some countries stay behind the vaccination curve, the greater is the chance of new, more virulent strains of the COVID-19 virus developing.

It is also important to note that those who have been vaccinated are not necessarily immune. The clinical trials data provide clear evidence that vaccinated people can contract the virus. Indeed, the efficacy rate of a vaccine is calculated from the relative infection rates of those who have been vaccinated versus those who haven’t (the placebo or control group).

Only 100% efficacy implies total immunity from vaccination. The best vaccine so far is about 95% effective. It is widely thought that 60% is the minimum rate to make a vaccine worthwhile.
One of the major public health problems now emerging is that some countries are practicing ‘vaccination nationalism’. They are unwilling to share the doses they have control over.

The European Union (EU) is pressuring member states not to supply orders from its production to nations outside the EU while there remains a backlog of unfulfilled orders within the EU. Australia’s orders for the vaccine have been hindered at least by France and Italy. We are well behind our objectives stated by the government a few months ago.

The US, from President Biden’s speeches, has on order many more doses than it needs this year. Bloomberg reported that the US had secured twice the number of doses needed to vaccinate everyone. Given many in the US do not want to be vaccinated, it is logical that some of the US’ stockholding would be better directed elsewhere. The US just offered 1.5 million doses to Canada ‘on loan’ even though it has secured so much more than it needs in the immediate future.

The third wave of US infections peaked after its holiday season at around 250,000 new cases per day on a 7-day moving average. That infection rate almost got down to 50,000 per day in early March but it has started to climb steadily to around 65,000 per day in spite of the success of its vaccination programme.

There have been other issues hampering the fight against the virus – specifically regarding the AstraZeneca (AZ) vaccine. This vaccine is especially important as it is the planned solution for most of the world including Australia. AZ is reportedly new to the vaccine business and seems to have over-promised. Deliveries are reportedly well behind schedule.

Three unrelated problems have emerged with the AZ variant. The first was that, due to a bungle over administering the correct dosages, it emerged that it might not be sufficiently efficacious for the over 65s – the people who are at most risk.

A significant number of countries in the EU and beyond then stopped vaccinating that age group with the AZ vaccine – and some suspended the vaccine altogether. It later appeared that the evidence wasn’t sufficiently strong to warrant suspension of its use consequently, many countries started reversing their earlier decisions.

The second issue related to blood clots. Some people – but not that many – suffer from blood clots whether or not they have been vaccinated with any relevant drug. In the trials, some thought too many people in the AZ vaccinated group – as opposed to the placebo or control group – contracted blood clots.

The numbers of people so affected in each group are so small that it was hard to form a compelling statistical relationship. The jury is now swinging back to the fact that AZ does not cause blood clotting but, perhaps, those with certain pre-existing conditions might avoid AZ.

Nevertheless, effective from the end of March both Germany and Canada have suspended vaccinations for the under 60 and 55 age groups, respectively. There seems to be no consensus!
The third issue with AZ is the manner in which the results of the trials have been disseminated. It seems to have been a case of distributing information by press release rather than by the traditional scientific reports.

AZ had produced a number of sets of seemingly conflicting data. Then, in late March, AZ announced again by press release that it had concluded its large US trials and the vaccine was 79% efficacious – quite a good number and better than in some other earlier trials. Then, two days later at 12:20 am (Washington DC time) a US regulator called AZ to task over the nature of the data they were using!

While AZ came back and lowered its efficacy rating from 79% to 76%, we expect there is more to come on this matter.

We reasonably surmise from all of these events that AZ is as safe to take as any other vaccine but there isn’t great clarity over its efficacy. It certainly seems to be a lot better than nothing but, perhaps, we should continue to practice social distancing etc after having been vaccinated with AZ – or, until we know better.

The major prevailing economic fear at the moment is that inflation will return and require central banks to start hiking interest rates sooner than previously expected. It is true, much of the economic data has exceeded expectations but catch-up is different from reaching new highs.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is now expecting 6.5% US growth in 2021. Since US GDP ended 2020 behind its 2019 level, 6.5% in 2021 will only have the US, by the end of 2021, where it would have been after two years of ‘normal’ growth in 2020 and 2021.

There are also 9.5 million unemployed in the US who haven’t yet got the jobs back that they lost in the shut-downs. Inflation woes look a very long way off to us. But it is encouraging to see strong economic progress.

China released an encouraging plan for ‘quality’ growth over the next five years at a rate above 6% per annum. While there are many significant geopolitical concerns about China, the strength of its economy is not one of them.

Australia is also experiencing strong growth in GDP and in house prices – but GDP is still largely playing catch up. The house-price conundrum is causing many to scratch their heads. Latest data also put US house price growth over the last 12 months at 11.2% which is the strongest in 15 years.

Our overall assessment is that the developed world is starting to return to normal but we see occasional resurgences of infections and shut downs here and elsewhere for at least the rest of 2021. And markets seem set to follow recent momentum along with all of the ample stimulus from both central banks and governments.

Asset Classes

Australian Equities

The ASX 200 had another strong positive month – making it six in a row – but the index stands well short of its February 2020 peak.

We are noting that returns in different sectors have been behaving quite differently in recent months. Investors are presumably trying to work out how best to set their portfolio ‘styles’ for a post-pandemic world or, indeed, see their way through any consequent volatility.

International Equities

The S&P 500 reached fresh all-time highs again in March. This index had a very strong month along with the London FTSE and the German DAX. China and emerging markets did not fare well.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has clearly stated that it will support quantitative easing (QE) or bond purchases for some time to come and it will give clear warning long before it plans to start to ‘taper’ the programme. That, and the trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus being pumped into the US economy should ensure the momentum in US equities continues.

Our current estimate for the yield on the S&P 500 is about 1.6% (a little lower than historic averages) which is about the same as the 10-yr US Treasury yield. Given the prospect for capital gains in equities, we see the yield comparison still very much favouring equities for this year and possibly a lot longer.

Bonds and Interest Rates

The US 10-yr bond yield surge in February this year has largely dissipated. Since the yield is only back to pre-covid rates which we all thought at the time were low, we don’t see the current near 1.75% as problematic.

The Fed came out from its March meeting with a more optimistic view of the US economy. It upped its 2021 growth forecast from 4.2% (made in December) to 6.5%. It predicted 2022 and 2023 growth to be 3.2% and 2.2%, respectively. It expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% by the end of this year.

The growth forecasts might have been enough to ‘frighten the horses’ a little but its inflation forecasts certainly did. Because of the price effects at the start of the COVID-shutdowns, there will be a ‘base-year’ effect in the inflation data series in 2021. The Fed expects a temporary increase to 2.4% (above the old target but not what the Fed has more recently been discussing) in the middle of 2021. That it expects inflation to then immediately dip down to below 2% means that we shouldn’t be bothered about consequent rate hikes. The bond market appears somewhat sceptical of this on the basis that ‘why would you have consequent interest rate rises if it were not in response to rising inflation?’

All seems more or less settled on the interest rate front again but we did observe a couple of weeks of jitters in bonds and equities during March.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced a doubling of its QE purchases to help lower longer run yields on its government bonds. We are not expecting the RBA to raise its overnight rate to stem the recent house price surge. Up 3% in one quarter is a big house price leap but the latest prices are only slightly above those at the March 2020 peak.

In spite of all of the chatter during February and March this year, we fully expect interest rates to stay relatively low for at least up to 2023 both here and in the US.

Other Assets

Prices of the major commodities (copper, iron ore and oil) had risen strongly in the year-to-date but they have all seen some pull back in March. Gold prices were down over the year and the month.

The Australian dollar against the greenback lost a little ground in March and is at a low point for the year-to-date.

Regional Review

Australia

The GDP growth for 2020 December quarter came in at 3.1% p.a., down from 3.4% in the previous quarter. While the last two quarters of 2020 were indeed strong, GDP is still 1.1% below the 2019 level. In a normal year we might expect growth of, say, 2.5% so we finished 2020 at about -3.6% behind where we would have been in a normal year. Hence the stronger level in the short term is not the basis for inflation fears!

The household savings ratio, which is also published in the GDP report, showed a fall from 18.7% to 12%. That is still quite a bit above what we think is healthy for a strong economy. It’s rapid return following the spike in the shutdown is warmly welcomed. Our economy is starting to get back on track. People are feeling more secure about spending and have more options on which to spend!

Our labour force data too are improving. The latest unemployment rate was down to 5.8% after 89,000 jobs were created in the month. The peak in March 2020 was 7.5%. JobKeeper payments ceased near the end of March so there could be some fall out from that.

We have a lot to thank state and federal government policies for over the pandemic outbreak. There was another 3-day lockdown announced for Brisbane because of four people having tested positive. Rapid response, short-lived shutdowns have kept off public health control at the top end of comparable nations.

With very few residents having been vaccinated we are relying on limited interaction with people from outside of our group. Until we – and those who wish to visit – are close to herd immunity we cannot get back to ‘normal’ life. Masks, hand washing and social distancing will be needed for many months to come.

The OECD published updated forecasts for Australian growth. In December 2020, the agency predicted growth of 3.2% for 2021. That prediction is now 4.5% with 3.1% predicted for 2022.

China

China set its new five-year plan during March. It is targeting a modest 6% plus growth in an attempt to focus on quality (sustainable) growth rather than some of the boom-bust policies of recent years.

The monthly data on retail sales, industrial output and fixed asset investment shot the lights out at over 30% in each case for the latest 12-month period. Of course, the numbers are so high because it is 12 months since the data plummeted on the start of the fierce China shut-down brought on by its COVID-19 response.

US

President Biden was initially aiming to oversee 100 million vaccinations in the first 100 days in office. It looks like that figure will turn out to be more like 200 million. Since each person needs two doses for maximum immunity there is still quite a way to go. Indeed, as nearly half of certain groups such as ‘male republicans’ say they will not or may not take the jab, it is far from clear that herd immunity will be reached any time soon.

From boisterous interchanges in congress, it seems that some senators want those vaccinated to freely meet without masks etc. Indeed, Biden, said as much for gatherings indoors of fully vaccinated people. We fear that US citizens may push back too soon against distancing measures in turn slowing the elimination of COVID-19.

The rate of infections did start to climb again in the last couple of weeks of March even though vaccinations were well ahead of plan. The seven-day average of new infections ended March at over 25% above the March low!

US economic data are quite reasonable given the shutdown. 2020 December quarter growth was revised up to 4.3% from 4.1% and inflation (core personal consumer expenditure) was only 0.1% or 1.4% over the year.

The $1.9 trillion relief package only just started to be distributed in mid-March. Its full effect will not be seen for some time. On top of that, Biden wants a further $2 trillion dollars spent on infrastructure. Somebody is going to have to pay for this and people aren’t queueing up for the opportunity. He is recommending to hike the corporate tax rate to 28% from the 21% that Trump had introduced by cutting the previous rate from 35%. That discussion could mark the end of the presidential honeymoon.

Once the infrastructure bill goes through – as it does seem to be popular – Biden plans to turn to health and other personal issues. They will have to be paid for too!

In an unusual turn of events, Biden stated in a speech in March that he now plans to stand for re-election in 2024. He ruled that out before the last election. He will be 81 next time and 85 at the end of that term if he is successful. Sadly, he tripped three times on global TV trying to do ‘an Obama’ running up the steps to Airforce 1. As anyone in their seventies or older will tell you – it isn’t easy – which is why the rest of us all use the sky-bridge! While athleticism is not a prerequisite for good government it is not a good look for confidence building.

Europe

The UK and the EU are going toe-to-toe over vaccine supply. The EU is restricting export of vaccines while they have unfulfilled orders. Italy and France interfered with exports to Australia. A regulator ‘found’ 49 million doses of AZ suspiciously not on display in an Italian factory! Big political games are being played. And AZ is well behind its production targets.

Nonetheless, the UK is ahead of the curve in its vaccination programme and it is maintaining its ‘roadmap’ for re-opening its economy by June. Germany, on the other hand, is just considering new lockdowns.

Rest of the World

After six days blocking the whole of the Suez Canal, the massive container ship, Ever Given, has been re-floated and an end to the blockage disruption is in sight.

Japan has announced that it will not allow overseas spectators at the Tokyo Olympics. That means there are of the order of 900,000 tickets to be refunded. That has to hurt. It’s not clear what happens with hotel reservations and travel bookings. Somebody has to lose a lot of money. In hindsight it might have been better to have cancelled the games last year.

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